Well, for an alternative contrarian point of view, I thought that it was interesting that a recent CNBC poll--I'm not sure if it was analysts or viewers--had zero respondents predicting a 2009 oil price over $75.

BTW, I assume that the $85 pick was for the highest price in 2009, which could easily translate to an average price of $60 or so for 2009, which would be an annual price decline rate of about -50%/year, relative to the 2008 average price of about $100--so the overwhelming consensus opinion is that there is not a chance in hell that the average price in 2009 will exceed the average 2008 price of about $100.

I just posted an article up top by Steve LeVine (who has occasionally posted here). He's the author of The Oil and the Glory, and has long studied the politics of oil and Russia. He thinks the current gas dispute is basically a disagreement on what the price of oil will be this year.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan delves into this subject of making predictions.

There is scant little empirical evidence documenting the accuracy of the forecasts and predictions made by economists and finance industry "experts".

But what little evidence there is suggests they do a bang up job. In fact, their predictions are almost as good as those made by NY city taxicab drivers.

As Taleb says, empiricism is not something that is highly valued in the world of economists and finance industry "experts".