<Financial Forecast for 2009, Considering Resource Limitations The Oil Drum DrumBeat: January 7, 2009>

50 comments on Natural Gas and Credit Situation - Nate Hagens Interview on Global Public Media

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elwoodelmore on January 7, 2009 - 10:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"The myopic focus on 'reserves' as opposed to flow rates and affordability will be our energy achilles heel in retrospect."

i'm having a little trouble with that statement. and imo, the myopia is in choosing either or, reserves or flow rate. you just cant have one without the other.
the physics of a dry gas reservoir are well understood, and i will state it here: pv=znRT. p, pressure, on the left hand side of the equation is the main factor determining flow rate and n, moles of gas, on the rh side is reserves(period). well, make that reserves =f(n).

and how you gonna achieve a non zero flow rate without reserves?

on one hand if the solution to our impending ng "crisis" is all in flow rate, then by all means drill baby drill. and what will be drilled are those 80% per year declining shale gas wells.
and on the other hand, there are sizable "conventional" gas deposits in alaska, just waiting for a pipeline to turn them into reserves. there are also sizable "reserves" via conservation, and as far as i can tell the only way to access those "reserves" is via high(er) ng prices. screw affordability.

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Nate Hagens on January 7, 2009 - 10:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

that was my point. Energy gain is the driver of social democracy. Once we reach low EROI on NEW oil and gas, rising prices will divert resources away from non-energy sectors - the 'cushion' in the society will be gone - and the high prices necessary to 'drill baby drill' won't be paid by anyone (except perhaps governments, which is I suspect the path we will go)..(but it will still be money paying for energy instead of vice versa)

My main point is necessary prices to attain IEA/EIA production levels will never be affordable in a declining aggregate EROI environment. If we are flush with terawatts of wind/wave and solar energy gain, then it perhaps can be so.

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710 on January 7, 2009 - 1:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Energy gain is the driver of social democracy." Excellent, yes, but in order to gain energy, two things must increase: flow rate, and infrastructure to handle the flow rate. The energy grows and the physical infrastructure grows.

There is a parallel to the increase in energy and resource flows involved as a child reaches adolescence or adulthood, and is no longer a recipient of authoritarian parental rule, but may now make rules her/himself.

But the energy and resource flow levels are relative to surrounding infrastructure needs as well. Think "Lord Of The Flies".

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50 comments on Natural Gas and Credit Situation - Nate Hagens Interview on Global Public Media

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