The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | 2009: Predictions for Australia

24 comments on 2009: Predictions for Australia

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Big Gav on January 9, 2009 - 4:04am

Most likely there will be significant layoff’s in the mining industry which has already started. In turn all the miners who previously had so many investment properties will be trying to offload them onto a market already over supplied with over priced property which will continue the downward spiral in prices.

Melbourne has seen a significant price drop in the last year and in Perth where I lived until a year ago the out suburbs have seen price drops of upto 25 per cent and the median house price has dropped by about $40,000.

Care to give examples of mining companies that have started laying off people ?

RIO have announced global cuts but I haven't seen numbers for Australia. BHP aren't cutting. Neither are Woodside.

Santos are looking for 600 new people to work on CSG projects in Queensland.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/09/2462067.htm?section=business

Apache's Reindeer / Devils Creek gas project in WA just got the go ahead this week as well.

Perth house prices may be down - but even if its 25% in some areas, overall they tripled over the past 6 years, so the medium term trend is still pretty healthy.

Thus far its only people with big margin loans or who have lost their jobs (far more likely in finance than mining) that are hurting.

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Termoil on January 9, 2009 - 7:29am

Here's One

These are direct mining jobs that have gone but the real effect will be felt in heavy engineering workshops and contractors an suppliers all around the country. These enterrpises have geared themselves for growth and will ahve to hastily unwind those positions as the order book from the mining companies slow down. There are plenty of mining projects that looked great two years ago, that will struggle to get financing now so won't happen.

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Big Gav on January 9, 2009 - 9:07am

Thanks - I like it when people provide references :-)

When I was in Perth over Xmas everyone was extremely gloomy about the coming year but I like to see some actual numbers (no matter how gloomy they were, I don't know anyone in mining or energy who has been fired yet - but I know lots in finance).

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blaidddrwg on January 9, 2009 - 1:25pm

References as requested

$25m spending rush amid mining layoffs in Queensland
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24821467-5013871,00.html
The Australian, December 19, 2008

Lean times ahead for Australian miners
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24885133-20142,00...
The Australian, January 08, 2009

Slump in building approvals hits Australian economy
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,,24889653-5011140,00.html
The Courier Mail, January 8th 2009

Rio Tinto resumes operations at Western Australian Pilbara mine
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24879241-14334,00.html
AAP, January 6th 2009

Alcoa slashes 15,000 jobs, cuts output yet again
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24885302-36418,00...
The Australian, January 8th 2008
**Note reference to 4400 mining job losses since June 2008

More hardship for resources sector ahead
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24892933-643...
The Australian, Janaury 10th 2009

Property boomtowns turn to bust
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,,24817416-14327,00.html
The Australian, December 18th 2008

And as I also said about the building Industry
Building industry faces layoffs after sharp drop in new housing approvals
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24890654-462,00.html
The Australian, January 9th 2009

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