In order to keep our imports at a constant rate, our consumption has to fall at the same volumetric rate that our domestic production falls.

This is the post-peak "Import Land" quandary. It's the opposite of the "Export Land" quandary. For a post-peak exporter to keep their net exports constant, their consumption has to fall at the same volumetric rate that their production falls. If we go back to the Export Land model--2.0 mbpd at peak, consumption of 1.0 mbpd and net exports of 1.0 mbpd, with a post-peak production decline rate of -5%/year--for their net exports to stay constant at about 1.0 mbpd, their consumption would have to fall at about-15.6%/year over a 10 year period.

Here's the math:

Production in 10 years, with a -5%/year decline rate: 1.21 mbpd.

We want to then be exporting 1.0 mbpd, so consumption would have to fall from 1.0 mbpd to 0.21 mbpd, over a 10 year period, which is -15.6%/year (falling by half about every 4.6 years).

If we assume a -2.5%/year production decline rate, consumption would have to fall at about -5.8%/year, in order to still be exporting 1.0 mbpd in 10 years.

If US demand falls 25%, that would be the same as Ghawar disappearing off the face of the earth.

Similar - but the former is reversible, the latter is not...