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102 comments on A Prince and Four Peaks: Peak Oil, Gas, Coal and Uranium
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102 comments on A Prince and Four Peaks: Peak Oil, Gas, Coal and Uranium
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The prince is not an engineer and has not done his homework. The peak sustainable uranium price will be under $200 / pound for at least several hundred years. That is less per kWh than coal.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4558#comment-413193
Splitting 6 ounces of uranium or thorium will provide a lifetime supply of energy at the U.S. rate of consumption.
When the sun runs out of gas and swells up to destroy the earth, earth will still have abundant supplies of uranium and thorium. If intelligent life exists then, uranium and thorium may provide the energy to go to the outer planets. Fission is our longest lasting renewable.
From wikipedia article on Uranium depletion:
These are only the low cost uranium resources, typically in the range of less of 130 $/kg. This corresponds only to one $ per oil barrel equivalent. The nuclear fuel resources available at a cost of extracion of 10 or 20 $ per oil barrel equivalent are pratically renewables, almost infinite on a human scale, even with current and very inefficient nuclear technology based on ordinary or heavy water reactors, which use far less than 1% of the energy of uranium. At today uranium price, current nuclear technologies prevail
Nor indeed exist a "Yucca Mountain peak", all the transuranics in the nuclear waste can be reused and recycled (and eliminated) with enormous energy savings
This reference is a red herring in that all of its numbers rely on the statement, “assuming a once-through cycle”. The only reason we follow this cycle is natural uranium is so low in cost, and a presidential directive back in the 1970s banned it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing If the cost of uranium rises enough reprocessing will become viable again. Another reason this is a specious argument is that Thorium fueled reactors can produce aproximatly 400 times as much energy as Uranium in thermal reactors, http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/ . This gives us plenty of energy for a thousand years even assuming an increase in energy usage each year.
You build one, then I'll believe it. I've seen vaporware tech come and go many times. Why is this one any different? I smell a scam. There's a lot of money in pushing this idea, for someone.
There were a lot of thorium fueled prototypes working very well including molten salts reactors; the question is not if they really work, but rather if their electricity production is really reliable and cost effective...it' s simply a matter of physics that one gram of thorium ~ 3,5 tonn of coal, no question about it
As someone who's followed liquid fluoride salt reactors for years, I would honestly be interested to know who's got all the money pushing this idea.
As for building it, its been built allready at ORNL over 40 years ago.
Bill - 'When the sun runs out of gas and swells up to destroy the earth, earth will still have abundant supplies of uranium and thorium'
OK then..peak Yucca mountains.
And it's not a renewable however you figure it.
Actually, if the rate of U extraction is at or below the rate of ore body generation by natural processes then it IS renewable, or as much so as geothermal, for instance.
Just as oil is renewable at a certain extraction rate - at least 100 barallels a day(!!) worldwide.
And if you properly reprocess and breed, then the average 30-year half-life of the end state waste means that your waste pile has a finite size.
Nothing is renewable in this universe. If you don't like it, find another Universe where the second law of thermodynamics doesn't apply.
The error in thinking here is one of too few classifications. You can't really shoe-horn everything into "renewable" and "non-renewable" without having some sort of timeframe and usage rate. A better classification would include some notion of price, total production, production rates, and time, all on a handful of graphs.
A simple agreement of "functionally perpetual", "long term", and "short term" would help a lot too. Does it matter if uranium runs out in 150 years if a nuke plant only lasts for 30? Does it matter if sunlight runs out in 4B years? Does it matter if oil is renewable in only 100M years? Does it matter if solar were to become free if we can only build 10GW per year? Or that 100Mbbl/day of oil is possible at only $1000 per bbl?
Curves with reasonable scales tell us a lot. We need to be reasonable in our planning and our arguments, and we can probably afford to give the benefit of the doubt to each new technology in its infancy, but not to dominant sources in their maturity.
Bill,
Glad to see you back at TOD. I think fresh air on nuclear energy has been in short supply here. Keep it coming!