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53 comments on Oilwatch Monthly January 2009
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53 comments on Oilwatch Monthly January 2009
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hi tommy
IMO the all liquids graph is a bit misleading for 3 reasons;
1. It contains biofuels which are a disaster for many reasons and for which EROEI is probably not far from 1.
2. Non crude oil liquids contain a large fraction of NGL's which have only about 70% the volumetric energy content of crude. This component has been steadily rising as a fraction of total liquids.
3. EROEI of crude is likely falling as newer and smaller fields and unconventional oil take up an incresing fraction of the crude total.
Getting an exact number for 3 is tricky but if you take output numbers for May 2005 and compare with Oct 2008, ignore biofuels and allow for the 0.7 conversion factor for NGL's, then there is little difference in volumetric energy content (oct '08 is 0.3mbpd higher). The slightly higher figure for oct 08 is probably (personal gut-feel) wiped out by reduction in EROEI over the period.
The fairest overall conclusion is probably that liquids have been on a plateau since 2005. To appreciate this better you should really view the data without the false origin - i.e. plot on graph paper with 0mbpd as the Y-axis start point. It's then clear that the mom differences over last 4 years just constitute a noisy plateau.
On a different subject it looks as if any OPEC reduction from oct to dec 08 (-1.3mbpd) has been almost wiped out by an increase (+0.9mbpd) in non-OPEC production over the same period. No wonder the price has failed to rise over that period as the world recession deepens! And another piece of evidence IMO that the price will rise rapidly when/if economic recovery begins.
TW
I was confused by the date in the title :)
Fixed.
thewatcher, now you watch yourself! What you address here amounts to a scandal on TOD.
People might think my moniker "nopeak" is tendentious, (it was sarcastically selected) but nothing is so scabrous as TOD publishing the "all liquids" bullsh*t graph above-the-fold and pretending it comes even near to representing reality.
Per your first statement: "it contains biofuels." Indeed. This is called "double-counting." Pump some oil, count it as "liquids." Use the oil to grow some crops and use the crops to make some fuels, and count it as "liquids." No one on this site has ever shed any real light on this farrago of liquids, but there it is, above-the-fold, obfuscating the peak.
Per your second statement: "it contains NGLs." Yessum. None of this is made into motor gasoline or diesel or heating oil, and it comes from NATURAL GAS WELLS! not oil wells. This site is called The Oil Drum, but that never stopped them from obfuscating the peak ""oil"" with oodles and oodles of propane and butane.
Per your third statement: "EROEI is likely falling...." You get the award for Understatement of the Year. Let's all ignore the energy yield and pretend, with the stupendously positive "all liquids" graph above-the-fold, that a volumetric increase in "liquids" means one cussed thing.
I love you all. Now excuse me while I go makes some "liquids" on your legs.
nopeak
Please children, we are trying to keep this a "civil and professional place for discussion.
The other kids will get a bad impression if you continue......
nopeak,
Your post is unfair and inaccurate. You've been a member here for seven weeks. Perhaps you should go back and read every DrumBeat fromJan '07 to now. You will see you are way off.
Churlishness, even rudeness, has its place, but only in light of truth. You are not dealing in the realm of truth with your post.
Jeers
Deffeyes called Peak around Thanksgiving of 2005 based on conventional oil, if my memory is right. How does that play vs this report? If we're on a volatile plateau why dicker over one-half of one percent when the practical effect of peak oil goes back to 2005 (if not 1970ish).
Seems to me biofuels are NOT something that should be counted in "Peak Oil". Not unless one wants to go abiotic. Seems to me oil is oil not tarzans, not NGL, not soybeans.
cfm in Gray, ME
You are wrong. I've been reading here since the beginning. You have no basis to be so presumptuous about my readings history based merely on when I registered for this site!
I remember when the only "peak oil" sites were fromthewilderness, dieoff, and peakoil.com. By these lights, you on TOD are the johnny-come-latelys.
Funny how you and Citizen Anarchist, obsessed with the outraged tone of my post, don't address the source of the outrage. You claim "inaccuracy" and "lack of reality" and refute it NOWISE.
So tell me:
1. Does the volumetric "liquids" count employ DOUBLE-COUNTING, or not? Perpetually and ad infinitum TOD posts this graphic with a straight-face under the title "Oilwatch." A joke!
2. Does the NGL category smuggle in propane and butane from gas wells or not to obfuscate the oil picture? Hmmmm?
3. Is EROEI -- and especially per capita EROEI -- going over a cliff or not, as more and more SLUDGEY crap is "counted" as "oil" in the "liquids" category?
I call bullsh*t and will continue to call bullsh*t when I see it.
Volumetric liquids counts are bullsh*t.
Edit: BTW, there is a typo in the headline. "World liquids fuel production including biofuels" should read "World liquids fuel production including loaves and fishes."
You're exactly right, nopeak.
And so banished to the wilderness will be your prize,
like it has been the prize of Dirty Fucking Hippies since
Ronald "Trees Cause Pollution" Reagan.
EROEI is EVERYTHING.
And as I've been stating since Katrina when I came here
because of your excellent Hurricane coverage.
And your TOD reports on Thunderhorse which then disappeared after Katrina.
a blank spot between TH and March '06. And don't show me pics of
TH and Dennis damage.
AAMOF this might be the first post I read here:
#
#
The Oil Drum | Hurricane Katrina and Thunder Horse/Gulf Oil ...
Hurricane Katrina and Thunder Horse/Gulf Oil Production (Kat now potentially a Cat 4?) Posted by Prof. Goose on August 26, 2005 - 10:24am ...
www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/26/85755/4147 - 46k
As I said, then and now, every oil watershed/inflection point has been
accompanied by a major socio economic event to verify.
The severity matching the watershed's importance exactly.
Obama just ran out of time. Good Luck. Tick Tock.
mcgowanmc , nopeak, RIGHT - ERoEI is everything. It is everything to the cheeta chasing the gazelle. It is everything to us. ERoEI seldom counts human energy but as we move closer to an ERoEI of 1 suddenly it will become clear just as it is for subsistance farmers or hunter-gatherers. For example the ERoEI of cane ethanol is better than corn. Partly this is because the cane is burned after extracting the syrup to provide some of the energy of processing (in other words no crop residues go back to the soil so the ERoEI is being supplemented by soil depletion) and partly because the energy of the workers (food, housing, transportation) is not counted. A cane cutter is expected to cut about 3 tons or more of cane a day. If machinery was used to cut the cane the fuel for the machine would be counted. Thus in that way of accounting if we used virtual slave labor to harvest corn and didn't count the food we fed them we too could have a better ERoEI on corn ethanol.
If a solar panel factory had to pay its workers in electricity produced by some of the panels it made - had to dedicate a portion of them to "pay" its workers, it would lower the ERoEI of the panels. Of course a human's pay is more than the value of lighting and heating a house, so we would have to subtract from the ERoEI of solar some amount to run electric tractors to grow the food for the workers, etc etc etc.
What level of ERoEI we can live with and still have industrial civilization is debatable. I suspect we are getting very close. I am sure that solar and wind will NEVER have enough to sustain the world as we know it now.
All of the above are addressed time and again here at TOD. You also conflate TOD with being a monolithic entity when that obviously is not the case. There is dissension among the ranks, both among the staff and the general posting public.
You are not being truthful. You seem to have a bit of a thing going for EROEI (which is often discussed.) Understandable. But the post I responded to is edging into the fanatical. Perhaps it's warranted to push the EROEI concept. That is not the issue I raise. I am only saying being truthful is helpful to cogent discussion.
Anyway, just pointing it out. It's not my site, so it's not important to me whether you continue your tirade or not. You want to misrepresent? Go ahead. If TOD staff find it useful, perhaps they will respond.
(And, no, I'm not a lackey or boot licker here. I've had warnings and had posts deleted and have quite publicly called some of the main posts here rubbish.)
Cheers
One suggestion for counting ERoEI but first the problem.
Problem:
When calculating ERoEI we have to calculate ALL energies that we put in. This is the part which is making trouble. The other part of calculating the energy that we get out is easy and straight-forward. The problem in the first part is that we don't know to what extend we must go. It get really complicated when we try to estimate energy needed to employ one person for one month. Should we estimate energy used for entertainment (show biz etc)? What about the wastes (do the person really need a car to drive to work? etc)? Another problem is to what extend we must calculate the energy (energy going to Morocco's miner of phosphate rocks to make fertilizer to be used in rice farm in china that grow rice for the factory worker in china that made that dolls that the daughter of ceo of shell get for her birthday etc).
Solution
Subtract the energy used for hiring humans. Only calculate the energy going in producing objects (foods, cars, buildings, electricity etc) assuming that humans are doing it for free or that the work is done automatically. Ofcourse there are non-human energy consumptions in a factory and farm and even in services, things like fuels, electricity etc.
Once this is done and we have a database of estimated energy used in making each of the objects, estimate where employees are spending their incomes. People use their incomes for buying two basic things: goods and services. When a service is bought money is given to another human who use some part of it in buying goods and some part in buying services. As you move forward in the life of the money eventually all the money is spent in buying some kind of goods. Once you have a database of estimated non-human energy used in production of goods AND database of goods usually bought by the people you can have a better (though not exact) estimation of ERoEI.
Now about the wastes. To what level people can use their money more efficiently (do you really need that car to go to work? is it really necessary to go abroad on vacations every year?) would be answered differently by different people so we don't go in that discussion.
Wisdom, it is a problem (especially for first worlders) to know what to count when counting the energy of human input. In Brazil the wages are barely subsistence wages. They could just as well be paid in food, housing and cooking fuel as their wages would buy little else. For the sake of trying to count it I would use some measure of food calories for the worker and his family and the energy for basic housing and necessary transportation. When we get down to only having the really low ERoEI energy that is all that a worker is going to be able to get, just as in the past and in third world countries today.
The other problem with ERoEI is the ERoEI of the EI. Take solar, if your EI is oil it is still high enough to not affect your ERoEI but if you are trying to use solar to make solar you will need more EI than if you are using oil to build your solar panels (and run 18 wheelers and build roads etc).
Personally I think the "DOOMERS" see the world more clearly than the "POLLYANNAS" who seem regularly to miss the obvious problems with the "alternative" energies. I still have not seen a serious discussion on Electric dump trucks, earth movers, etc. The problem "doesn't exist" apparently because the Pollyannas don't want their hopeful world view shattered.
You seem to be miss reading the post to me. Its really important to understand what "the world" in general is counting as fuel.
Thank you for the post and all the work Rembrandt.
hi nopeak
Just a comment on NGL's. As I understand it (I'm sure you will correct me if I'm wrong ;-)) the bulk of these come from the gas caps above oil fields and so can technically be said to be associated with oil wells - but splitting hairs maybe.
Regarding motor fuel, it's not true to claim NGL's are of no use as there are now quite a few cars here (UK) that drive on LPG. My b-i-l has one and gets pretty impressive mpg out of it despite the lower energy content. So IMO it's fair to include NGL's in liquid fuels as long as allowance is made for lower volumetric energy content and whatever the EROEI is (anyone know this?)
TW