so maybe mechanization will reverse itself as oil gets expensive making coal production globally cut in half or less. This could stop the accleration of GW. If as the orginal post implies some break points will not allow a long tail for oil then it will certainly be the same for coal. Most of the carbon based fuels will never be used in the linear concept proposed by GW scientists so that the GW catastrophe might be slowed down due to above ground or other complications cutting off the tail in PO Peak NG, etc.

So maybe only 50% of coal and 70% of oil and NG ever get pumped out. We could adjust our climate models considerably and adjust our expectaions of collapse timming. We could also consider that strong union movements would return controlling mining, agriculture due to high levels of manpower involved. Most collapse scenarios do not consider labor movements but just say everyone will do theri own thing in some sort of chaos. At any rate lots of new and unpredictable elements could come into play. Since labor movemtn has become weakened in USA this could tip poitics into a real radical democratic direction. Obama and the dems are clearly just another neoliberal party slightly right of center. When people have to scrap and dig themselves and mechanical construction, etc. equipment and cars are gone then worker's rights and democrats will really mean class rights. The lazy rich will not sweat. Nowadays most people sit in offices or trucks or do service jobs which are not very hard physically. This will change. Life will go from all being rich upper class(in comparison to grandpa on the farm or in the mine ) to one of hard work and real class distinction based on sweat and dirt,etc. on the body. Our mechanical slaves will be gone(also in the household).

You can see the current data at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/coal.html

What that shows is that US net coal exports actually increased in 2007 and increased further in 2008. Looks like roughly extending the graph posted by Westexas would put 2007 at about 500 trillion BTU and 2008 at about 1000 trillion BTU

Here's my hand-drawn extension off the graph which I think is a rough estimate based on monthly data through November 2008. Someone can perform the precise conversions to BTU's from production/consumption figures if they really want.

And here's the latest EIA monthly graph in million short tons - although it is difficult to read the export graph line due to scale. Exact figures are at the website.

However interestingly these figures from the EIA don't seem to match those in the BP Energy review as shown by http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/ According to that net exports decreased from 2006 to 2007 and also shows a short period of net imports around 2003 not reflected at all in the EIA figures.

Any coal industry experts about?