You're right Gav. Peak Oil won't mean the end of air travel, just the end of *cheap* air travel. Goodbye mass tourism.

Back in the 1930s when a Sydney-London air ticket cost as much as a house, some people still flew. Also in a thinly-populated country like Australia, aviation is a fairly low-infrastructure way to provide transport (compared with say a bullet train line from Sydney to Perth).

One thing that we do have to worry about concerning aviation infrastructure though, Sydney Airport is only one metre above sea-level and will probably become untenable due to global warming within less than the 90 years that have alrady elapsed since it was first founded on the edge of Botany Bay...

Back in the 1930s when a Sydney-London air ticket cost as much as a house, some people still flew.

Houses were a lot cheaper, though! $2,000-$4,000 was a common range - again, with skilled labourers earning $40 weekly; so a house cost one to two years' wages. Nowadays it's about ten years' wages.

Is the ratio that much different in Australia than the U.S.? Skilled labor in these parts averages about $40-$60 thousand a year, about four times the median house price. Also in the 1930s households didn't have two income earners, add that in and we are down to a modern house (which is a far different product than a thirties house) costing two or three years wages. Not much different than your 1930s number.

I will bet if the ratio of air fare/freight to median first world incomes returns to where it was in the thirties the airline industry will not be a big enough fuel user to warrant much consideration.

On a local note: the refinery here has halved its jet fuel shipments to the regional air cargo hub from 80 railcars a day (for Feb. 2008) to 40 (Feb. 2009) because of the downturn. Jet fuel is one of the most 'practical' ways for Alaska to conveniently deliver a high volume value added product made from its own oil so the manufacture of the product will likely continue here for the foreseeable future. Likely that will have little impact on Australia though.

Also in the 1930s households didn't have two income earners, add that in and we are down to a modern house (which is a far different product than a thirties house) costing two or three years wages. Not much different than your 1930s number.

Which is 2 or 3 years, because that is a 50% increase.

You also seem to think that 40 hours of earnings is "not much different" from 80 hours of earnings - a 100% increase. It is a travesty that it takes two incomes to run an average family household!

The average home now would be 150% to 300% of the physical plant of the average home available in the 30s. The standard 1930s chore load of labor intensive washing and ironing, preparing and cooking all meals from scratch, and labor intensive house cleaning added enough time to the homemakers day beyond what those same chores require today to free up at least an eight hour shift. The well off upper middle class (or lower upper class might be the more accurate term) had housekeepers to handle much of this, working class families handled it all themselves. Women raising the larger families of that time worked no fewer hours then than woman raising families do now.

The running around built into our current lifestyle is what really sucks the time out it, and most of that is brought on by our automobile centric system, the system we built in the glorious 50s and 60s.

A great many of the woman raising smaller families with a more mechanized chore load in the fifties and sixties had worked in the war plants and wanted out of the house and back on the job where they got a paycheck for their efforts. Of course the wage differential put in place by that time made sure their out of the house labor never matched up to the men's income wise so the slippery slope had begun.

Households had very little disposable time or money in the thirties. Its the mid fifies and early sixties post war boom years (in the victorious USA anyway) that are the good old single earner income days-with the perfect June Cleaver or Harriet Nelson kept homes-which are held up as some lost ideal. They were an anomaly not the norm, and we are still suffering from their hangover. Husband and wife teams have traditionally worked very hard except of course for the relative few of the upper crust, like those idle, bored gentlefolk of the Victorian novel who wouldn't stoop to a days labor (god had created the rabble to do that for them).

It is a travesty that it takes two incomes to run an average family household!

You can say that again. Most people don't seem to realise the squeeze that has occurred over the past 2 decades or so.

Also in a thinly-populated country like Australia, aviation is a fairly low-infrastructure way to provide transport (compared with say a bullet train line from Sydney to Perth).

We won't need bullet trains, though. 120km/h trains are more than enough (combined with high-speed broadband, so people can telecommute to business meetings). Sure, maybe 4 hours on a train doesn't quite compare to 2 hours on a plane (plus 2-hour check-in, plus 40 minutes disembarkation and baggage claim. Hmmm.), but it's in the ballpark. And you can increase rail capacity a lot easier than air capacity (add another carriage). Helluva lot cheaper than expanding an airport too.

Out in the sticks, it's a different story, but people are used to long delays, waiting around, and long transit times out there anyway.

Also, the link to the NAP Submissions in the Keypost is semi-broken. Needs reformatting.

Time is money, and in a post-peak world time will be less money. The high speed mobility afforded by cars at a local level and air travel at a global level lets us get more work done and make the most of our limited free time (Americans even more so since we don't get a month of vacation like the Europeans). Will we ever go back to ocean liners and 120 km/h trains for long distance travel? I don't know. It will still be a tradeoff between time and cost.

Do we actually get more done, though, or does the improved mobility simply mean we have longer commutes, and cheap airfares to Fiji?

Bellistner, I am currently reading Tainters book 'The Collapse of complex societies.' Although not finished yet I believe his thesis is that some societies reach a point of complexity which cannot be sustained due to the law of diminishing returns and the society reverts or collapses to a simpler form. I think that this can be related directly to what is happening in the world today. Our current world has got too complex, requires too many resources of all sorts for little or no gain and as a result is starting to collapse back to a simpler form. Relating that to this post, I think most peoples worlds are going to become much smaller and as a result there won't be the need for longer commutes, international travel etc. And of course this means that the demand for aviation will fall.

Think of it like a treadmill. You have to keep running faster just to stay in the same place. If you look at just employment, mobility certainly gives you a competitive edge over other applicants. It gives you a choice of workplaces over a wider area than an applicant limited by mass transit. However, it's only an advantage until everyone gets a car and then it becomes the minimum ante to get in the game. The only counteracting force is the expense of fuel and parking, but outside of crowded downtowns, most businesses treat free parking as a price of doing business.

We won't need bullet trains, though. 120km/h trains are more than enough

I am agreed with that, expense, and specific energy consumption rapidly rise with speed. I was hoping the speed cutoff could be set in the 150-180kph range however.