I think "expectations" might be an important stock, with the degree to which prices have been above or below expectation controlling (after a delay) the rate at which this stock changes. [key point: what controls the delay? Start by assuming it's fixed, perhaps.]

A lot of the data you need you can't get from econometric-type surveys.

The only way I know how to do this stuff is to hang around (on drilling sites and in board rooms), listening and asking questions. Hard to do, and pretty near impossible if you're not attached to a university (as I'm not).

Rockman freely shares his knowledge of how the industry works - that's really cool. He would be a great collaborator if he's willing.