I have to sadly agree. As much as I would like to see the sensible policy, we know in our hearts the outcome will be as you have outlined. There's too much money in play for all sides. Sometimes I don't know whether I should be clicking my heels three times, chasing after the white rabbit, or calling the Ministry (Brazil).

BTW Jeff, I came across your writing a few years back with the Theory of Power and have appreciated your recondite analysis. (It surprises a few that are caught in the typical military stereotype to see the honest and thoughtful analysis that is coming from US military members).

Thanks, BC_EE. For the record, though, I'm no longer employed by the Federal Government or a member of the US Military. That said, it's my opinion that there is a great deal of "independent thought" in the military--it's primarily the structure of our political-military complex that drives outcomes...

Taleb in The Black Swan came to the same conclusion. He has the highest regard for U.S. military planners.