<Drumbeat: May 7, 2009 The Oil Drum Drumbeat: May 8, 2009>

80 comments on Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)

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bloomingdave on May 7, 2009 - 11:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Great analysis. If world production follows the North Sea - would you expect a global decline rate of 7-8%/year? In a severe recession/depression, is domestic consumption by exporters affected such that the export-land model will not exact such a heavy toll - at least
in the near future?

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westexas on May 7, 2009 - 2:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The initial Lower 48 decline was slow for three years, then faster, close to 4%, and the long term decline has been about 2%/year. I suspect that the global decline might look something like the Lower 48. More thoughts down the thread.

Regarding exporters, I think that the $64 Trillion question is what happens, in aggregate, to consumption in the top exporting countries.

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The Dude on May 7, 2009 - 8:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

EIA's forecasting that in 2008 KSA shows a 164 kb/d consumption increase. You wonder if they will ever reach a ceiling, through maximum total supply for consumers of course, no way will they ever shortchange their citizenry beyond the odd batch of farmers in the east who can't get some diesel during a price spike.

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80 comments on Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)

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