80 comments on Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)
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80 comments on Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)
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The initial Lower 48 decline was slow for three years, then faster, close to 4%, and the long term decline has been about 2%/year. I suspect that the global decline might look something like the Lower 48. More thoughts down the thread.
Regarding exporters, I think that the $64 Trillion question is what happens, in aggregate, to consumption in the top exporting countries.
EIA's forecasting that in 2008 KSA shows a 164 kb/d consumption increase. You wonder if they will ever reach a ceiling, through maximum total supply for consumers of course, no way will they ever shortchange their citizenry beyond the odd batch of farmers in the east who can't get some diesel during a price spike.