81 comments on Gas Crisis Raised in UK Parliament
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81 comments on Gas Crisis Raised in UK Parliament
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I might as well throw in this post in as well, originally from Drumbeat March 9th
Was Peak Natural Gas in 2008?
The late Dr Samsam Bakhtiari expected Peak Gas to occur around 2008/2009 (far earlier than most predicted) mainly due to the decline of Russian supergiant fields.
With Russian Gas production for 2009 down by maybe 50bcm (1.7 trillion cubic feet) before you even add in announcements such as the 240 mcf/day (7mcm/day) cut by Chesapeake, the likely decline in US production as rigs are dropped and general demand destruction curtailing production, it seems highly unlikely that 2009 production worldwide will exceed 2008 production.
So have we seen the final peak in gas as well as oil?
Some writings from Bakhtiari
AFTER 'PEAK OIL', 'PEAK GAS' TOO
THE 'SHTOKMAN' SAGA
And for those who don't know who he was and why he might know a thing or two about Natural Gas, here he is in "The End of Suburbia".
And, to top it all off, Matt Simmons is currently going round the world telling audiences that "Europe is toast - cold toast", and that we've been "hung out to dry"
Here's that chart rescaled.
I really don't like that chart of Simmons with non-linear time scale (jumps from annual to 5 year) and absence of so many fields. I prefer this one from Jean:
but would like to see an updated version. I agree that decline in Urengoy and Yamburg has to be a worry - but this has to be analysed more professionally than portrayed by Simmons slide.
Looks like an outdated wish-list.
Sorry, maybe I'm just being overly cynical tonight... but yes, I'd also like to see an updated version of the chart posted.
Ok, here's my cynical updated version - I just removed everything to the right of Zapo. As most of that production seems years in the future now (someone please correct me if I'm wrong)
Maybe the new fields could be re-inserted but starting about 2012?
Interesting. I just found this:
http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/enwiki/843209
Note reserves values are all higher than Jean's.
; Russia
* Urengoy gas field (385 TCF; 10,200×109m³)
* Yamburg gas field (198 TCF; 5,242×109m³)
* Bovanenkovskoe field (166 TCF; 4,400×109m³)
* Zapolyarnoye gas field (132 TCF; 3,500×109m³)
* Shtokman field (113 TCF; 3,000×109m³)
* Arctic field (104 TCF; 2,762×109m³)
* Astrakhanskoye field (102 TCF; 2,711×109m³)
* Medvezhye field (83 TCF; 2,200×109m³)
* Yurubchen (73.7 TCF; 2,100×109m³)
* Kharasoveiskoye field (62.5 TCF; 1,900×109m³)
* Orenburgskoe field (62.5 TCF; 1,900×109m³)
* Kovykta field (62.5 TCF; 1,900×109m³)
* Kyrtael field (60 TCF; 1,600×109m³)
* Sakhalin-III (49 TCF; 1,300×109m³)
* Chayandinskoye field (46.8 TCF; 1,240×109m³)
* Angaro-Lenskoye field (46 TCF; 1,220×109m³)
* Central-Astrakhan field (45 TCF; 1,200×109m³)
* Leningradskoye field (40 TCF; 1,050×109m³)
* Yuzhno-Russkoye field (35 TCF; 1,000×109m³)
* South-Tambey field (35 TCF; 1,000×109m³)
* Krusenstern field (34 TCF; 960×109m³)
* North-Tambey field (35 TCF; 929×109m³)
* Kharampurskoye field (32 TCF; 825×109m³)
* Pestsovoe field (30 TCF; 800×109m³)
* Rusanovskoye field (30 TCF; 779×109m³)
* Utrenneye field (28 TCF; 747×109m³)
* Malyginskoye field (28 TCF; 745×109m³)
* Yurkharovskoye field (26 TCF; 740×109m³)
* Harvutinskoye field (26 TCF; 700×109m³)
* North-Urengoy field (21 TCF; 600×109m³)
* Ledovoe field (19 TCF; 500×109m³)
* Samburg field (19 TCF; 500×109m³)
* Sakhalin-II (18.8 TCF; 500×109m³)
* Kamennomysskoye field (19 TCF; 500×109m³)
* Sakhalin-I (17.1 TCF; 484×109m³)
* Tasiyskoye field (16.6 TCF; 440×109m³)
* Yamsoveiskoye gas field (15 TCF; 436×109m³)
* East-Tarkosalinskoye field (15 TCF; 400×109m³)
* Aneryahinskoye field (15 TCF; 400×109m³)
* Gubkinskoye field (15 TCF; 400×109m³)
* Vuktyl (14.7 TCF; 390×109m³)
* Beregovoe field (12.2 TCF; 324×109m³)
* Yubileynoye field (12.2 TCF; 323×109m³)
* Hvalynskoye field (12.2 TCF; 322×109m³)
* Tarkosalinskoye (12.2 TCF; 321.5×109m³)
* North-Kamennomysskoye field (12 TCF; 310×109m³)
* Ety-Purovskoye Field (11 TCF; 300×109m³)
* Vyngapurovskoye field (11 TCF; 290×109m³)
* Nahodkinskoe field (10 TCF; 275×109m³)
* Pelyadkinskoe field (9.5 TCF; 255×109m³)
* Lyantorskoye field (9.4 TCF; 250×109m³)
* West-Astrakhan field (9.4 TCF; 250×109m³)
* Severo-Stavropolskoye field (8.6 TCF; 229×109m³)
* Nurminskoye field (8.4 TCF; 223×109m³)
* Ludlovskoye field (8 TCF; 220×109m³)
* Geophisicheskoye field (7.9 TCF; 210×109m³)
* Verhneviluchanskoye field (7.9 TCF; 209×109m³)
* Minkhovskoye field (7.8 TCF; 208×109m³)
* Novo Portovskoye field (7.5 TCF; 200×109m³)
* Yen-Yahinskoye field (7.5 TCF; 200×109m³)
* West-Siyakhinskoye field (7.2 TCF; 190×109m³)
* North-Komsomolskoye field (7.1 TCF; 186×109m³)
* Sredne-Tyugskoye field (6.2 TCF; 165×109m³)
* Soletsko-Khanaveyskoye field (5.8 TCF; 155×109m³)
* Layavozhskoye field (5.3 TCF; 140×109m³)
* Gydanskoye field (4.4 TCF; 116×109m³)
* Tas-Yuryakhskoye field (4.2 TCF; 112×109m³)
* Hancheiskoye field (4.2 TCF; 111×109m³)
* Verhnetiuteyskoye field (4.2 TCF; 110×109m³)
* Vyngayahinskoye field (4.0 TCF; 107×109m³)
* Myldzhinskoye field (3.8 TCF; 100×109m³)
* Messoyakha Gas Field (3.8 TCF; 100×109m³)
Euan,
What is the total of all the fields you listed above?
I've not added up yet. Need to cross check their views on fields we know about from OECD. It will be interesting to start summing from bottom to see how far up the list you get to get an Urengoy.
Another point I would note here is that Bakhtiari considered Russian gas claims for undeveloped fields to be grossly exaggerated.
On undeveloped fields in particular, see Investor Village CWEI, messages #s 71577, 74013 and 74021, which critically review IHS data on the top 50 gas fields outside North America by reputed reserve volume. See http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&pt=m
My article "Largely About Access," posted on Energy Bulletin for January 14 also gives reasons for thinking that the global gas peak, at least in terms of availability to end-users, is virtually upon us. See http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47669
Euan, do you know that according to Russian law, information about total reserves of oil in Russia and in large "strategic" oil fields is considered state secret. Because of it, foreign top managers of oil companies have problems with access to some data of their own companies. Curiously, natural gas is not covered under this law. I think, it is because Gazprom holds all information anyway, and the company can control what data can become public.
Either way, we know nothing about true amounts of oil and gas in Russia. And those who know can't speak.
That is why I think that the logistic (HL) method is an invaluable tool for giving us a plausible estimate for the URR (oil) in a region. Here is our Khebab/Brown (HL based) estimate for the outlook for Russian total liquids production from mature basins. The projected initial 10 year decline rate is shown. In January, 2006, after looking at Khebab's modeling work, I said that I expected to see the Russian oil production decline resuming within one to two years, although my estimated decline rate was too high. The projected range of decline rates shown on this graph is probably more accurate:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/image013.png
I like your model, but we cannot deny the possibility of positive surprises. Every year the Ministry of Natural Resources take a few oil/gas/ore licenses out of the black box and auction them off. What is in that black box is everybody's guess. Also, it's hard to distinguish an oil field discovered last year and one discovered in Soviet times and put on hold. And in Soviet times we employeed pretty unique techniques of exploration like seismic imaging with nuclear blasts (total 39 explosions for that purpose).