Note that it appears that global crude oil consumption only fell one year in the Thirties, in 1930, with rising consumption thereafter, and as Downsouth observed there were three million more cars on the road in the US in 1937, versus 1929. Today, hundreds of millions of people worldwide want to drive a car for the first time. Also, after hitting a low in 1931, oil prices rose from 1931 to 1937.

Monthly constant dollar prices in the Thirties:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/11/oil-shock-of-1930s.html

In regard to net oil exports, note that the US went from finding its largest Lower 48 field, the East Texas Field, in 1930 and from being a leading net oil exporter, especially during the Second World War, to net oil importer status in only 18 years (in 1948).

Downsouth observed there were three million more cars on the road in the US in 1937, versus 1929. Today, hundreds of millions of people worldwide want to drive a car for the first time.

This argument hold no water with me. If hundreds of millions of people want to take a trip to the moon does that mean its going to happen? Should I invest in rocket fuel? The fact is when those people do want vehicles they mostly likely choose a new urbanism community that doenst require a car, those that can afford cars will purchase plug in EV's. This "hundreds of millions of people" want to drive cars is a strawman.

This website has annual passenger cars, commercial vehicles and total vehicle production by year, through 2007:

http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/2007-statistics/

It appears that total vehicle production increased from 58.4 million in 2000 to 73.2 million in 2007. Of course, in order to know the net increase in vehicles, we would need to know how many vehicles were scrapped.

In any case, for the sake of argument, if we assume 70 million vehicle sales per year, the 10 year cumulative gross increase in vehicle production would be 700 million vehicles.

The 10 year cumulative gross increase in vehicle production, ending in 2007, was about 615 million.

Again you make the huge assumption that these 700 million vehicles will be built, further you make the assumption that they will run on gasoline. Lot's of assumptions, just sayin'

Actually, I'm not assuming that they will be built, especially since our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters will have shipped about half of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports by the end of 2012, but the automotive supertanker is going to take some time to slow down. At 70 million vehicles per year, we would be over 200 million cumulative new vehicles in only three years. And I wonder what percentage of them would be powered by petroleum products?

This "hundreds of millions of people" want to drive cars is a strawman.

Then why have car sales in China boomed?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDCOM2mACDYY&refer=home

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models, helping the country extend its lead as the world’s largest auto market this year.

Sales of passenger cars, buses and trucks climbed to 827,600, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in Beijing. The tally in the first two months rose 2.7 percent to 1.56 million, compared with a 39 percent decline to 1.35 million in the U.S.

Also, a car is not "going to the moon" technology. It is something we understand how to do extremely well, and have mass production capabilities in.

Cars sold in China are more than likely the families "first car," so they are new users of oil, unlike in the US where a new car is more than likely a replacement of an older car.

As long as the car fleet is growing at all, the consumption of oil will grow.

Besides, the other major user of fossil fuels, food production, is more stable in its oil consumption growth.

The fact is when those people do want vehicles they mostly likely choose a new urbanism community that doenst require a car, those that can afford cars will purchase plug in EV's"

--Why would they do that when they can buy an old beater for a thousand bucks and gas is $1.50 a gallon? People will buy whatever is economical for them to buy. As a side note, how many EVs can our current infrastructure support? Every summer the grid here in the US groans and strains under the weight of the existing electric loads. How is this currently practicable to any meaningful degree? I am not even in the third world,I am an American who runs a small business that often involves driving and/or hauling w/ my car. There is no EV even remotely on the horizon that would suit my needs. If I were to buy a new card I would buy a Fit.

"The fact is when those people do want vehicles they mostly likely choose a new urbanism community that doenst require a car"

--yeah assuming they are Yuppies!

Yes people always and for all times buy according to only one factor--price--and always with full information and pure rationality---not.

Just because this is the world depicted in your ideological propaganda...er...intro economics textbook doesn't mean that it has any glimmering relationship to most people's reality.

The explosive growth in organic produce, farmers markets, hybrids...are not primarily driven by price-only thinking by any stretch of the imagination.

EV's have been discussed at length elsewhere, but just for your information and for those who haven't caught those earlier conversations--a significant portion of the current car fleet could be replaced by electric vehicles without the need to build one more power plant. The two main reasons are: 1) They are charged mostly at night when there is large excess capacity, and 2) They are some five times more efficient than even the optimistic efficiency ratings of hybrids, which are some five times more efficient than the average SUV.

And this without any improvement in the grid or supplying available "smart technologies" that charge when energy is available and can draw down a bit of energy from the batteries if the grid needs it. With these simple developments, a large fleet of EVs could greatly stabilize the grid and allow much higher use of intermittent renewable generations such as wind and solar.

Because there may not be an EV on the market right now that fits your particular needs does not mean that millions of people couldn't either get by without a car or use an EV for almost all of their motoring needs. It's not all about you.