64 comments on Oilwatch Monthly March 2009
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64 comments on Oilwatch Monthly March 2009
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This website has annual passenger cars, commercial vehicles and total vehicle production by year, through 2007:
http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/2007-statistics/
It appears that total vehicle production increased from 58.4 million in 2000 to 73.2 million in 2007. Of course, in order to know the net increase in vehicles, we would need to know how many vehicles were scrapped.
In any case, for the sake of argument, if we assume 70 million vehicle sales per year, the 10 year cumulative gross increase in vehicle production would be 700 million vehicles.
The 10 year cumulative gross increase in vehicle production, ending in 2007, was about 615 million.
Again you make the huge assumption that these 700 million vehicles will be built, further you make the assumption that they will run on gasoline. Lot's of assumptions, just sayin'
Actually, I'm not assuming that they will be built, especially since our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters will have shipped about half of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports by the end of 2012, but the automotive supertanker is going to take some time to slow down. At 70 million vehicles per year, we would be over 200 million cumulative new vehicles in only three years. And I wonder what percentage of them would be powered by petroleum products?