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79 comments on LEARN: An Acronym to Avoid Societal Collapse

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aangel on March 24, 2009 - 2:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Re: Jared Diamond's 49%

That number sounds suspicious to me. My guess is that he actually thinks it's greater than 50% but doesn't want to deal with the (negative) response he would get if he stuck his neck out that far.

This isn't a criticism...it does take courage to say something that is in direct opposition to the prevailing (if in the background) societal conversation, which at this point in time is something like "humanity will always progress" or to distinguish a conversation more in the foreground "when the economy picks up in x years."

It's a small number of people who get that the economy will never pick up, in my view.

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Lynford on March 24, 2009 - 3:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I have no problem with 50 to 80 percent chance of collapse. I remember full well the LA and Watts riots and no one was hungry. I am not really into full blown Mad Max but gangs will not go hungry as long as they can intimidate.

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creg on March 24, 2009 - 4:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

aangel
note how he was uncomfortably grinning thru that section. he's got a job & kids, as i remember.

like u said...

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WNC Observer on March 24, 2009 - 5:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually, I would say that there is a 0% chance that western civilization will survive intact. I am 100% certain that to the extent it survives at all, it must adapt and transition to the changing realities. Whether or not it successfully does so is still an open question.

I would suspect that if put to him that way, Diamond would probably more or less agree with the above statement.

Unfortunately, salvaging anything remotely recognizable as western civilization at all requires that we go through the descent in what I would call "managed decline" mode. At least as far as the USA is concerned, our government is operating about as opposite of that as is possible, and just about everything it is doing so far is counterproductive. That does not give much reason for hope, I'm afraid.

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79 comments on LEARN: An Acronym to Avoid Societal Collapse

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