I dissent. We ARE unavoidably going to becoming materially poorer. We ARE going to have to shrink, not grow when it comes to material consumption. It's improper to sugar coat that.

Where I begin to agree again is in saying that this need not impoverish our lives if it is done correctly. And certainly there has to be an exploration of the property relationships appropriate to the new era of reduced material consumption.

Redefining growth is not a straighforward way of explaining the matter. People know what the current definition of growth is. Growth is out of the question. Improvements in life there can be, but not via growth as commonly understood.

The underground physical resources, hydrocarbons in particular, that underpin industrialism are depleting, and industrialism itself will wind down in this century (and winding down does not necesarily exclude collapse at some point).

I would go further and say that there is a name for the system we have: capitalism. What gets done only gets done if there is profit in it. That's what has to change. When the common good is in conflict with profitability, it must be possible for the common good to trump profit considerations, at least in matters of survival. Until that changes, we're screwed. There's no way to put a happy face on that either. Capitalism has a powerful constituency in case anywone hasn't noticed.

"We ARE unavoidably going to becoming materially poorer....The underground physical resources, hydrocarbons in particular, that underpin industrialism are depleting"

This is a basic question, and a long discussion. I hadn't really intended to go there, as I was really talking to Nate.

OTOH, I guess it needs to be addressed. I'm not sure you're open to new info, but there are certainly people reading (lurking) who would be interested. So, here goes - here are a few posts from my site:
Can oil can be replaced?
would reducing CO2 emissions be that hard, if we really wanted to?
Population

How pessimistic should we be?

Nick,
Your optimism is refreshing and always backed up by some good links/facts or well reasoned arguments. Peak oil does not =peak energy!

I must admit to being pessimistic that CO2 levels will not be controlled until serious damage is done to ocean life by declines in pH and [CO3 =] ion.

Thanks for the compliment!

I agree about ocean acidification - that's a good example of why I'm less optimistic about climate change than I am about peak oil: ultimately, our FF consumption is under our control, while our effects on the planet are much less so due to lag times and positive feedback.

I'm not sure you're open to new info, but there are certainly people reading (lurking) who would be interested.

Why resort to a comment like that?

I meant no criticism - I regret if any was felt. I've just had many experiences of people who, IMHO, had a hard time hearing this info.