Great post Nate. The oil drum has excellent analysis. Now its the time for some action. Our government is not a distant entity. We are the government. Is there any activist movement related to the oil drum? If not, then lets form one.
We can write some bills and try to get them passed into law. A question is, what (if any) are the pragmatic and realistically achievable actions oil drum readers feel should be in those laws (other than growing/buying food locally, cycling/walking everywhere or heading for the hills with a gun)?
Morgan
I think that is part of the problem. Some want baby steps (CAFE standards), others want powerdown. It is hard to agree on plans of action. The closer we get to real decisions via painting out the corners, the more likely it is the 'clear' decisions will offend some previously aligned interest group. Clearly we want to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, but that results in taxes or conservation or hardship and these are all political no-nos in the current environment.
In the end though, you are right. We are the government. But I think most have forgotten that.
this is a heavy weight on the doomer side of my scale. what we (the world) need is a plan, a master plan. suppose we monkeys could even come close to developing anything like a plan, how would it be implemented? Mussolini made the trains run on time; but that's about it
rugged individualism is great for selling cigarettes; but that's about it
You've got to pick your spots. Time now for ... blogging on computer.
When computers go dark or government breaks down it will be time to do something else. Things will sort themselves out. The quick and the clever will advance and the slow witted and less acute will be bypassed, just like always.
The maze may change but the rats are always the same.
Hmmm, so be completely reactive, no sense of planning for (and mitigating) risks with high probability and high impact? Those following this path set themselves up for failure.
I do think all this time on the Internet with blogs etc. is serving a crucially important function: its as though we are all synapses in an evolving superhuman intelligence that is gathering facts and thinking about solutions. Look at the way the TOD community hashed out the topic of corn ethanol and its pros/cons, that was the work of a group intelligence more capable than any of its individual components.
It takes a lot of time spent gathering info, commenting and writing on the part of the individual synapses (this means you) in order to keep that group intelligence humming.
In fact, I believe that this is our only hope of survival as we face this century's converging crises.
In the past human civilizations have usually failed to ward off crises of resource depletion, largely because of the short-term-oriented limited-horizon thinking that Nate has often written about here.
IMO the crucial difference between us and our ancestors is the way we have developed new media technologies to tie our brains together and think better than we can individually. This is the only thing that has really changed about us since literacy developed, perhaps it will enable us to avoid a similar fate to our predecessors.
Personally I'm not sure if this emerging global networked intelligence we have been creating since the 90s is going to be enough to figure out the problems and find workable solutions that don't involve mass die-off...however its the only hope we have.
So keep blogging don't give up!
Also have to add -- I would imagine that at least here on TOD, many of us have significantly altered our activities in the real world because of the information we've learned here, am I wrong?
I recently made the most important financial decision of my life (NOT buying an overpriced house at the height of the bubble) precisely because of all the info I've gathered from hours of blogsurfing every day. Had I not understood what was going on and followed the advice of the real estate industry, we would have bought a tremendously overpriced house and lost everything we had in the ensuing downturn.
So for me personally at least, all these hours of reading blogs has paid off massively in helping me to avoid disaster...
I was speaking with a friend of mine this morning about planning for the paradigm shift. He is 55 years old and he said to me he didn't want to change. He loves his eating excursions to the local shopping mall (we are in Thailand and it is the hot season before the monsoon) He wants to die with his computer. And he was not pulling my leg!!! LOL
I'm all for action. And not just personal action. But before we can get the government to really notice we need to inform the people. A couple famous celebrities could help too :-)
We need activist groups in every major city united with a common message. They need to be organized and willing to walk the extra mile to get some real attention. Even though studying PO is as trying as a difficult college class, we need to bring it to the slacker (entitled) youth aboard to obtain a baseline of popularity. In many ways it could appeal to them as much as any other nihilist trend. Getting out the message is the important first step before we offer our "solutions".
Is there any activist movement related to the oil drum?
There are movements that focus on Peak Oil (and often Global Warming as well). One such is the Transition Town movement, started in the UK, and now teamed up with the PostCarbon Institute in the US, forming Transition United States. While these movements emphasize grass-roots planning and action, they also promote changes at the highest levels as well. Note that a large percentage of changes will need to be in local and individual choices; what we consume, in what quantities, and how to change our lifestyles to meet individual and community goals.
I highly recommend Rob Hopkin's book "The Transition Handbook" that gives a thorough and thoughtful treatment on the subject.
We can write some bills and try to get them passed into law.
Based on the power the minority has with the Senate filibuster, meaningful laws are very hard to pass, especially when a few Democratic Senators are from auto or oil/gas states. That doesn't mean we should stop trying, of course, but State and Local efforts are very significant and should be recognized as such.
Fortunately, there is a Congressional Peak Oil Caucus that you will likely find already pursuing the goals you've mentioned.
The collective "we" may be the government is some abstract sense but in the real world an elite group runs the government and I (and probably you) have only a superficial influence.
The time for mass collective action is not now. It was thirty five years ago. These issues could have been solved and resolved then if anybody had been paying attention. Now it's too late. Same with climate change. It is important to recognize this in order to deal with the future. Running around beating on bureaucratic doors is a waste of time. If you want to turn the rubble into compost then make a compost bin and start working.
Great post Nate. The oil drum has excellent analysis. Now its the time for some action. Our government is not a distant entity. We are the government. Is there any activist movement related to the oil drum? If not, then lets form one.
We can write some bills and try to get them passed into law. A question is, what (if any) are the pragmatic and realistically achievable actions oil drum readers feel should be in those laws (other than growing/buying food locally, cycling/walking everywhere or heading for the hills with a gun)?
Morgan
I think that is part of the problem. Some want baby steps (CAFE standards), others want powerdown. It is hard to agree on plans of action. The closer we get to real decisions via painting out the corners, the more likely it is the 'clear' decisions will offend some previously aligned interest group. Clearly we want to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, but that results in taxes or conservation or hardship and these are all political no-nos in the current environment.
In the end though, you are right. We are the government. But I think most have forgotten that.
this is a heavy weight on the doomer side of my scale. what we (the world) need is a plan, a master plan. suppose we monkeys could even come close to developing anything like a plan, how would it be implemented? Mussolini made the trains run on time; but that's about it
rugged individualism is great for selling cigarettes; but that's about it
You've got to pick your spots. Time now for ... blogging on computer.
When computers go dark or government breaks down it will be time to do something else. Things will sort themselves out. The quick and the clever will advance and the slow witted and less acute will be bypassed, just like always.
The maze may change but the rats are always the same.
Hmmm, so be completely reactive, no sense of planning for (and mitigating) risks with high probability and high impact? Those following this path set themselves up for failure.
I do think all this time on the Internet with blogs etc. is serving a crucially important function: its as though we are all synapses in an evolving superhuman intelligence that is gathering facts and thinking about solutions. Look at the way the TOD community hashed out the topic of corn ethanol and its pros/cons, that was the work of a group intelligence more capable than any of its individual components.
It takes a lot of time spent gathering info, commenting and writing on the part of the individual synapses (this means you) in order to keep that group intelligence humming.
In fact, I believe that this is our only hope of survival as we face this century's converging crises.
In the past human civilizations have usually failed to ward off crises of resource depletion, largely because of the short-term-oriented limited-horizon thinking that Nate has often written about here.
IMO the crucial difference between us and our ancestors is the way we have developed new media technologies to tie our brains together and think better than we can individually. This is the only thing that has really changed about us since literacy developed, perhaps it will enable us to avoid a similar fate to our predecessors.
Personally I'm not sure if this emerging global networked intelligence we have been creating since the 90s is going to be enough to figure out the problems and find workable solutions that don't involve mass die-off...however its the only hope we have.
So keep blogging don't give up!
Also have to add -- I would imagine that at least here on TOD, many of us have significantly altered our activities in the real world because of the information we've learned here, am I wrong?
I recently made the most important financial decision of my life (NOT buying an overpriced house at the height of the bubble) precisely because of all the info I've gathered from hours of blogsurfing every day. Had I not understood what was going on and followed the advice of the real estate industry, we would have bought a tremendously overpriced house and lost everything we had in the ensuing downturn.
So for me personally at least, all these hours of reading blogs has paid off massively in helping me to avoid disaster...
I was speaking with a friend of mine this morning about planning for the paradigm shift. He is 55 years old and he said to me he didn't want to change. He loves his eating excursions to the local shopping mall (we are in Thailand and it is the hot season before the monsoon) He wants to die with his computer. And he was not pulling my leg!!! LOL
I'm all for action. And not just personal action. But before we can get the government to really notice we need to inform the people. A couple famous celebrities could help too :-)
We need activist groups in every major city united with a common message. They need to be organized and willing to walk the extra mile to get some real attention. Even though studying PO is as trying as a difficult college class, we need to bring it to the slacker (entitled) youth aboard to obtain a baseline of popularity. In many ways it could appeal to them as much as any other nihilist trend. Getting out the message is the important first step before we offer our "solutions".
Morgan,
Is there any activist movement related to the oil drum?
There are movements that focus on Peak Oil (and often Global Warming as well). One such is the Transition Town movement, started in the UK, and now teamed up with the PostCarbon Institute in the US, forming Transition United States. While these movements emphasize grass-roots planning and action, they also promote changes at the highest levels as well. Note that a large percentage of changes will need to be in local and individual choices; what we consume, in what quantities, and how to change our lifestyles to meet individual and community goals.
I highly recommend Rob Hopkin's book "The Transition Handbook" that gives a thorough and thoughtful treatment on the subject.
We can write some bills and try to get them passed into law.
Based on the power the minority has with the Senate filibuster, meaningful laws are very hard to pass, especially when a few Democratic Senators are from auto or oil/gas states. That doesn't mean we should stop trying, of course, but State and Local efforts are very significant and should be recognized as such.
Fortunately, there is a Congressional Peak Oil Caucus that you will likely find already pursuing the goals you've mentioned.
Your thoughts?
The collective "we" may be the government is some abstract sense but in the real world an elite group runs the government and I (and probably you) have only a superficial influence.
The time for mass collective action is not now. It was thirty five years ago. These issues could have been solved and resolved then if anybody had been paying attention. Now it's too late. Same with climate change. It is important to recognize this in order to deal with the future. Running around beating on bureaucratic doors is a waste of time. If you want to turn the rubble into compost then make a compost bin and start working.