The Oil Drum | Drumbeat: March 27, 2009

144 comments on Drumbeat: March 27, 2009

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Round Tripper on March 27, 2009 - 9:20am

Can someone point me to a short video (You Tube, etc.) that explains the issues with Peak Oil. My audience is my Board of Directors, so I can't use Kris Can, and "End of Suburbia" is too long. I need like 7-9 minutes.

The video should lay out the technical issues, with historical examples and then extrapolate to the current plateau/peak.

I also can't use JH Kunstler telling us that Suburbs are doomed. No speculation on implications, not yet.

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mcgowanmc on March 27, 2009 - 9:28am

Where we are headed: Peak oil and the financial crisis
by Gail Tverberg

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48442

Nearly all of the economic analyses we see today have as their basic premise a view that the current financial crisis is a temporary aberration. We will have a V or U shaped recovery, especially if enough stimulus is applied, and the economy will soon be back to Business as Usual.

I believe this assumption is basically incorrect. The current financial crisis is a direct result of peak oil. There may be oscillations in the economic situation, but generally, we can't expect things to get much better. In fact, there is a very distinct possibility that things may get very much worse in the next few years.

In this post, I will put together some of the pieces I see. This post is based on a presentation, so includes more than the usual amount of graphics. The post repeats many things I have said before, but I wanted to bring more of the pieces together into more of an overview article. This is a link to a PDF version of the presentation. This is a link to the Powerpoint version.

#
The Oil Drum | Worthwhile Videos
Posted by Gail the Actuary on October 12, 2008 - 10:57am ..... It would be even more useful if you could upload it to Youtube or Google video ? ...
www.theoildrum.com/node/4636 - 112k - Cached - Similar pages -
More results from www.theoildrum.com »
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Peak oil - Jan 12 | Energy Bulletin
Peak Oil - Politics, Geopolitics, and Choke Points Video (YouTube) Gail Tverberg, The Oil Drum This is a 26 minute video, featuring four speakers at last ...
www.energybulletin.net/node/47698

And you can fire at least one of 'em and replace him with Gail.

;}

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BOP on March 27, 2009 - 10:44am

If the audience is at all sophisticated (and since this is a board level presentation I assume that this is the case) then Gail's presentation is likely to fail.

Gail's theory is as follows:
1) Higher oil prices
2) General credit unwind
3) Drop in demand
4) Low oil prices

Her materials do not prove this chain of cause and effect.

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mcgowanmc on March 27, 2009 - 6:07pm

Her materials do not prove this chain of cause and effect.

Like we don't know what's causing the cancer but we know this isn't it.

Wait for the Theory to be made into Law and
your business is gone.

Get out of debt now. That collapse stays ahead of oil
depletion is the best case scenario.

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mcgowanmc on March 27, 2009 - 6:09pm

The system itself has forgotten that it only exists to ensure our prosperity and to see that our shores are defended from outside attack. Or has it forgotten? It talks the talk to be sure, but it does not walk the walk. Judging only by the results of its actions we can see that it acts against our best interests across the board. In fact, what we most need protection from is the system itself.

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Han on March 27, 2009 - 6:12pm

If the audience is at all sophisticated (and since this is a board level presentation I assume that this is the case) then Gail's presentation is likely to fail.

Gail's theory is as follows:
1) Higher oil prices
2) General credit unwind
3) Drop in demand
4) Low oil prices

BOP,

what she explains is that this economy depends on cheap energy, increasingly available. The combination of this conditions ended last year. Maybe she has read the book 'from mass-economy to information-economy' from Paul Hawken, written in the '80's when oil prices rose and industries started to suffer because of that. IMO her presentation cannot fail.

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Dezakin on March 27, 2009 - 9:36pm

what she explains is that this economy depends on cheap energy, increasingly available. The combination of this conditions ended last year.

post hoc ergo propter hoc...

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hightrekker on March 28, 2009 - 12:14am

Hawkins is a Neo Smithian, and has completely missed the boat.
Capitalism will not save us, and is a major problem going foreward.

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jmygann on March 28, 2009 - 2:49am

God won't rescue world from 'stupidity,' says top Anglican

"the ultimate tragedy is that a material world capable of being a manifestation ... of divine love is choked, drowned or starved by its own stupidity."

But "to suggest that God might intervene to protect us from the corporate folly of our practices is as un-Christian and un-biblical as to suggest that he protects us from the results of our individual folly or sin."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2009-03-27-environment-God_N.htm?c...

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Round Tripper on March 27, 2009 - 10:09pm

My board is composed of elected officials (it's an MPO). But really, I'm not looking to go beyond the basics of PO.

The geology leads to a bell curve of production, etc. I want to get across the idea that eventually each year's production goes down. IF I get permission from the Executive Director to go this far, I'll move on to the implications later.

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Ron Broberg on March 28, 2009 - 1:31am

Yeah ... when I gave a similar presentation to a corporate VP once, the question I was not prepared to answer was "So how do we make money off this?"

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Greg Hunter on March 28, 2009 - 5:13am

I wish you well and Good Luck! If they could watch the first 10 minutes of the Natural World A Farm for the Future, but it is a charts and graphs group. I hope you are successful and if there is anything I can do let me know, but I fear I am personae non grata with that Group :)

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Gail the Actuary on March 27, 2009 - 12:53pm

I put together a slightly toned down version of my presentation from earlier this week. It is clearly not for a 7 to 9 minute time slot, but it will probably get less "push back" than the original version.

PDF version: Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Financial Crisis

Powerpoint version: Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Financial Crisis

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mcgowanmc on March 27, 2009 - 6:10pm

Thank you. James

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Darwinian on March 27, 2009 - 9:32am

" I need like 7-9 minutes." This one is 10 minutes and is really good. But if you just google YouTube Peak Oil you will get many more.

Peak Oil: Gas Prices, Supply Depletion & Energy Crisis SHORT

Ron P.

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Debbie Cook on March 27, 2009 - 9:39am

Try Chris Martenson's Crash Course, maybe chapter 17: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

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umass82 on March 27, 2009 - 12:42pm

I just watched the Crash Course the other day, I think it is all very interesting, I learned from the course how the numbers have been fudged or years, the fuzzy math and how the economy had been in recession for longer than the Government had admitted to, I have to wonder, if based on the real (non fuzzy) numbers, whether or not we are actually in or near to being in a depression?

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westexas on March 27, 2009 - 10:25am

If you want some graphics, I've started using my "Peaks Happen" slide, i.e, Texas & the North Sea (prepared by Khebab)--developed by private companies, using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling:

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/TexasAndNorthSea.png

I have been recently been using the overall Lower 48 (which had only minor restrictions on drilling) and North Sea as models for the world. Mathematically, the world was to 2005 as 1999 was to the North Sea as 1970 was to the Lower 48, i.e., conventional crude production in all three cases was about 50% depleted.

The initial average three decline for the Lower 48 and North Sea was about -1.0%/year, but the average decline in following six years was about -6%/year. Relative to the Lower 48/North Sea models, the world is at the start of the six year period when the Lower 48/North Sea showed a sharper decline.

Clearly, world oil production fell in the last half of 2008, especially in the fourth quarter, due to lower demand, but as I have said before, I wonder if declining demand is masking an accelerating decline in production. The EIA numbers, subject to revision, were 74.8 mbpd for 7/08, down to 72.8 in 9/08 and ending 2008 at 72.8 in 12/08. As I said, clearly there was a demand factor, but in September, oil prices were still over $100. In any case, the annualized production decline rate from 7/08 to 12/08 was about -6.5%/year.

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KansasCrude on March 27, 2009 - 2:31pm

WT happen to spend a couple of days in your fair city this week trying to shake a few shekels out of your restaurant and food processing companies (DFW is the the pizza topping capital of the the U.S.) and still never cease to be amazed at the continued sprawl and activity. Was surfing the radio stations and heard a car dealer advertising the Tundra?(think it was) for 1/2 price $14,500 vs a sticker over $29,000. Thought that was a pretty incredible deal of course it was a car dealers add so you do have to discount it. Nevertheless saw a bundle of 30 day tags and the dining establishments were quite busy. You're economy seems to be holding up pretty well. Making fast work of "We Had Everything but Money" Interesting read. What's next on the list?

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westexas on March 27, 2009 - 3:46pm

I've been mildly surprised at how many restaurants are still pretty busy, especially since I'm brown-bagging lunch these days (I now wear black and play "Taps" when I open my oil run checks). On the other hand, there have been a lot of restaurant closings, so maybe the survivors are getting a higher percentage of reduced total volume.

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Paleocon on March 27, 2009 - 4:51pm

So far "only" 10% are unemployed, so many most of the rest are still eating out?

I know my daughter, who waits tables on college breaks, gets good tips and plenty of shifts. Part of may be to a "work hard, play hard" mentality for the weekend bar business.

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jokuhl on March 27, 2009 - 11:39am

Roundtripper;
Did you watch the BBC Future Farm video that has a post at TOD from last night? I thought the intro was a great way of tying Oil to AG as an example of a major industrial benificiary that would be threatened by PO. On-Cameras with Colin Campbell and Heinberg, who summarize the overall energy problem pretty succinctly, while the tone of the piece doesn't seem wild-eyed or offputting to me..

You might watch it and find a good place to stop, and possibly leave some of them wanting to see the rest...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5241#more

I just started sending email links of this Documentary out to my family, as I felt it was (finally) a very 'digestible' presentation of the issues..

'How to talk about the Birds and Bees and NOC's with your parents..'

Bob

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