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12 comments on Why use a 5-year window?

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Eroie Van Tanstaafl on September 19, 2005 - 3:45pm

It is because there are many examples of this type, where both negotiation and development times are significant, that it is likely overly optimistic to look much beyond the currently planned projects to anticipate supply capabilities up to 2010.

True enough for major projects - but what about smaller projects? Are there enough that in aggregate, they might provide a not-insiginificant percentage of additional production?

And does this also apply to extensions or infill of existing fields? That sort of work does a lot to maintain output beyond forecasts, but does not always show up in the press releases. I doubt tbat, however long the list of planned major projects is, it accounts for more than 75% of rig activity.

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Heading Out on September 19, 2005 - 8:34pm

Unfortunately as you go after smaller fields and new wells related to existing fields, then the risks of the venture become greater, and the production times become shorter. I seem to remember reading somewhere that the average well in the US now starts at an average 50 bd and the overall field average is now around 11 bd.

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Peak Oil Primers

“Of all races in an advanced stage of civilization, the American is the least accessible to long views… Always and everywhere in a hurry to get rich, he does not give a thought to remote consequences; he sees only present advantages… He does not remember, he does not feel, he lives in a materialist dream.”

—Moiseide Ostrogorski (1902, 302-303)