<Drumbeat: April 10, 2009 The Oil Drum Drumbeat: April 11, 2009>

156 comments on Steven Chu at the 2009 EIA Energy Conference

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westexas on April 10, 2009 - 2:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Re: Bathtub

Mexico is a current example of Net Export Math. I estimate that their net exports have dropped from 1.9 mbpd in 2004 to about 1.0 mbpd in 2008. Assuming about a -10%/year production decline, I estimate that they would have to cut consumption at about -16%/year (dropping by half in about five years) in order to maintain net oil exports of about one mbpd.

I'm waiting for the example of a major oil exporter, on a sustained basis, cutting domestic consumption in order to maintain net oil export capacity.

In any case, I think that this is the $64 Trillion question. How will the competition between consumers in importing countries and consumers in exporting countries play out in the years ahead?

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Gail the Actuary on April 10, 2009 - 3:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I talked to someone from Pemex and found out why they are importing so much gasoline and diesel now. (Apparently the gasoline is not particularly from the US.) Part of the problem is that they don't have enough refinery capacity, so some oil goes to the US, gets refined, and sent back.

Another problem is that the government has had a program to encourage auto ownership, so now they need a lot more fuel for the autos.

The third problem is on the diesel side, the country now has the same ultra low sulfur requirements that the US has, because trucks from the US need to refuel in Mexico and then go back. There were also some local laws passed requiring the ultra low sulfur diesel. Mexican refineries are not capable of producing the ultra low sulfur diesel, so it has to be imported.

To look at Mexico's oil use now days, one really has to net petroleum products imported into Mexico against crude oil exported.

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westexas on April 11, 2009 - 10:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Of course, the net export number incorporates imports of refined products.

Mexico's overall numbers are quite close to the Export Land Model--four year production decline rate of about -5%/year, with consumption at about half of production in 2004 and a four year rate of increase in consumption of about +2.4%/year. With some increase in consumption, this has resulted in a four year overall net export decline rate of about -16%/year, with the estimated 2008 net export decline rate being about -34%/year, showing the expected accelerating net export decline rate.

Here is Mexico's (EIA) consumption through 2007 (based on Pemex data, I estimate 2008 consumption at about 2.2 mbpd).

Here is the problem. If they wanted to maintain a net export rate of 1.0 mbpd, assuming a -10%/year production decline rate (the 2008 decline rate), they would have to cut their consumption in half over a five year period, to about 1.1 mbpd.

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156 comments on Steven Chu at the 2009 EIA Energy Conference

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