3) A large number of factors that limit production have not been incorporated, including the availability of water and natural gas which play a large role in the production of unconventional crude oil.

So the boosters still want to affirm the cornucopian view of future oil production, but by now they feel constrained to try to explain how oil production will increase, rather than just assert it as dogma the way they used to.

But in the same report they still stick to the leprechauns-will-provide model for water and NG? That figures.

I always wonder how much even experts are still unaware of how inextricably linked all resource issues are, as opposed to how much it's just disingenuity.

(E.g., in all the hype about oil shale, I still haven't heard a coherent explanation for where all that water is going to come from, in a political context where there's already a domestic and international brawl over every last acre foot of increasingly overallocated water.)

Oil shale will probably never be used as oil on any large scale because the EROEI makes no sense. The obvious use is to burn it in a power plant for electricity as has been done in the past in many places, and not just (but mostly) Estonia.

Given the time it will take to scale a next gen nuclear program, and the vast amounts of oil shale in the US, I see a ramp up in coal and then also oil shale electricity as very likely here in the States.

On the plus side, it might make a good resource for plastics in the future.