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90 comments on Article Review: Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources
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90 comments on Article Review: Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources
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Hehehe sometimes it makes me wonder about peer review and "research". Was it perhaps a "debate" comment in The Energy Journal;)
Your Figure 2 is brilliant. Devastating critique. I can only wonder how the authors of the reviewed article reflect upon fossil fuels stored in the Earth system?
Thanks for the review!
I agree completely on Figure 2. It makes their whole study seem ridiculous. How on earth could any reasonable person think that another 800 billion barrels is going to be discovered before 2025? That roughly implies that 45 billion barrels of new discoveries will be made consistently for the next 18 years (including 2008).
On a much smaller note, I do not completely agree with the assessment of Figure 3. I do agree that the blue line based on an additional 191 billion barrels is not likely, but in my opinion the green line forecast is also not likely. I believe it is too conservative. It seems to me that it basically implies that there will be zero reserve growth or new discoveries. I have pretty much made a career of finding oil that companies have left behind (aka. reserve growth) so I have a hard time believing it doesn’t amount to anything.
Thanks for the write up.
Yes. Thanks Rembrandt for a devastating critique (if I can echo Segeltamp's sentiments).
This is the most ridiculous study I have seen yet, and the USGS in particular has long history of these ridiculous studies, starting from the infamous geologist Zapp through the incompetent duo of Attanasi & Root. So this appears to be a bunch of lapdogs who took USGS data w/o any kind of sanity check applied.
The parts that I find really bizarre is their assertion that they make that these provinces have not yet been evaluated, and they have popped up like virgin areas. No way that this could happen in a reality-based universe -- you really have to expect that a continuum of search has occurred throughout the years. No way can these areas remain "bottled-up" for years and then suddenly someone decides to start exploring them. And these guys then make the assertion that a cornucopia of oil awaits? Do they really believe that the USGS knows how much exploration that private companies have done on these areas prior to their analysis? And do they think corporations will necessarily release this data?
The other part is their analysis based on reservoir sizes. The problem with reservoir size distributions is that there is no "top" so-to-speak for an effective URR solely based on aggregating sizes. How many reservoirs are they actually going to find? This has to factor into a sum total based on volumetric considerations. Showing reservoir sizes is a strawman as far as I can tell.
If that article ever appeared on TOD directly, it would get ripped to shreds. As someone else said, so much for quality peer review.