Cutting industry or commerce can easily make problems worse. If electric power generation loses, everything else collapses. This leaves home heating, but if people get too cold or damp, many will get sick and quite a few will die.
My understanding, and what has been reported on TOD before, is that homes are the last to see their gas shut off in an emergency. This is due to the issue of pilot lights going out and the resulting explosions when the gas service is resumes. Industry and other big users will see the first shut offs when a gas crisis emerges.
I live in London UK in a 120 apartment block and we moved from oil to gas for the central boiler about 15 years ago.
We now get our gas at wholesale (Industrial) rates which are about 50% less than residential rates. There are, however, some potential downsides to this that we have yet to experiance.
My understanding is that since margins are much greater for residential it is the last portion of supply to be reduced. So we get a lower rate but we increase our risk of supply disruption...
There is a small movement within the block that wishes to move to individual gas boilers in each apartment -I aim to resist this move if it ever gains traction as I still believe the communal system gives advantages. It would be almost impossible to supplement individual systems with renewable solar for example.
The cost and logistics of installing one hundred and twenty condensing boilers should hopefully keep this from happening. If the primary motivation is to encourage the more efficient use of energy and ensure greater fairness (i.e., each tenant pays for only what they use), there are sub-metering systems that permit these costs to be charged back on a unit by unit basis.
What about home cooking? I had the particular impression that electric stoves were the norm. I remember someone talking about the UK grid being challenged when everyone put a kettle on during a television commercial (advert?) break.
Digging a little further, in 2006, 87 per cent of UK homes with central heating are fuelled by gas (non centrally heated homes represent less than nine percent of all housing stock). With respect to cooking, natural gas and electric are fairly equal, with natural gas holding a slight lead in fuel use (53 versus 46 per cent).
Electric kettles and commercial breaks in a country that loves its tea can certainly wreck havoc, considering your basic Russell Hobbs can draw 3,000-watts.
I can't imagine why you think that the UK's residential heat is mostly electrical - although there is some electrical, the vast majority is either gas or oil fired with some LPG.
I do wonder which fuel might be best for current new installations - I am inclining towards thinking that electrical would be best, but there are clear issues with the necessary increase in electrical generating capacity if we switch over to using it for heating in a big way (as well as the additional amount potentially needed for charging vehicles too).
Solid fuel (specifically wood) also has really significant capacity issues, plus the problems with air pollution that would come with a large amount of wood being burnt. I have heard that the UK could not support more than 10% of its population from wood fuel assuming it were managed properly.
Although most UK residential heating is gas fired, almost all these systems use mains electricity to control the system. Without electricity, it doesn't work. Cutting electricity drastically cuts UK residential gas consumption as a side effect.
I am trying to set up a PV/mains powered battery backup supply. I will need to rewire the heating controls to switch between the mains supply and the backup supply when the lights go out, but at least I will keep warm as my neighbours freeze.
Buy a standard computer 110w UPS from any office supply/electronics shop (maplin) and supply your heating system trough it as per normal. Problem solved
A 110-watt UPS may be a little on the light side. My oil-fired boiler, Tekmar control system and main circulation pump draw a total of 247-watts and if the second pump that feeds two additional zones kicks on, that jumps to 327-watts. Also note that a light-duty UPS generally provides only enough juice to allow for an orderly shutdown of the PC; the runtime is not likely to be more than ten to fifteen minutes.
That's one possibility. Our boiler is wired to a small, fuel efficient gas generator and whilst a diesel set would be nice, this low-cost solution has served us well thus far. Under normal circumstances, the bulk of our space heating needs are met by the ductless heat pumps with the boiler providing additional support when temperatures fall below -15C or -20C (there's some electric in-floor radiant heat as well, but it's seldom used).
With the aid of the generator, the boiler and indirect water heater are our primary source of heat and domestic hot water during extended power outages. I keep a minimum of 500-litres of heating oil on hand at all times and enough gasoline to fuel the generator for two to three months, assuming one to two hours use per day; that should be sufficient to bump up temperatures so that the pipes don't free. If the generator should break down or we exhaust our fuel reserves, there are four propane fireplaces that can used for spot heating. Propane is the fuel of last resort, as it would be used for cooking purposes as well (we try to keep the main tank topped up and a couple BBQ tanks as spares).
We've also worked hard to reduce our space heating requirements so that a larger percentage of our needs can be met through passive solar; over the past seven years, we've cut our home's energy usage by over 90 per cent -- whereas the previous home owners used 5,700 litres of fuel oil and 14,000 kWh of electricity per year, we're now down to 350 litres and 12,000 kWh, plus some 50 to 70 litres of propane (the latter mostly for clothes drying and the BBQ). This has reduced our household expenses considerably and, most importantly, allows us to stretch our fuel supplies to the greatest extent possible should the need arise.
I have two Rinnai room ventless gas heaters that require zero electricity (an optional fan on one to spread heat evenly around the room, it works fine without the fan on).
Small (because of ventless), 6,000 BTU (1.75 kW) in bathroom and 10,000 BTU (3 kW) in one bedroom. They will keep pipes (and you) from freezing !
I have two more advanced Rinnai ventless has room heaters that do require electricity to operate.
Most UK domestic heating is gas fired or Oil very little electric. All newer gas heaters have spark ignition and no pliot light hence no electricty No Heat! Same goes for newer Gas Hobs they have a electric solenoid to cut of gas.
I can't speak for all gas cookers, but mine has electronic ignition and I can still light the hobs with a match or BBQ lighter. In fact, I use an induction hob for everyday cooking and gas only in the event of an extended power cut.
My understanding, and what has been reported on TOD before, is that homes are the last to see their gas shut off in an emergency. This is due to the issue of pilot lights going out and the resulting explosions when the gas service is resumes.
Ideally, home heating consumption would be cut back by efficiency measures. There is no simple way to discriminate between over-heating spaces vs. heating water or cooking.
So what does this mean, that "If electric power generation loses, everything else collapses."?
If the electric grid runs out of fuel or is overloaded, almost every central-heating system goes down in the blackout. This turns one failure into two failures, plus serious impairment of commerce (can't handle refrigerated food without fridges, most businesses can't run without electronic cash registers), etc. Short-term fuel shortages can be dealt with by shutting down business, but over the long term this brings down everything else with it.
We can cut back a lot more on space heat than we can on electricity.
You'll note that I specifically did not talk about mechanisms, just methods. Incentives and such are policy matters. There are all kinds of ways to push people to do the right thing, from lifeline rates for minimal usage with steep escalation afterwards, to PSAs, to free fittings for electric clothes and surveys of house insulation, to going around neighborhoods with thermal scanners.
There is also the option of "do nothing, and let the system fail." A policy of doing nothing is still a policy.
The UK also has the worst insulated housing stock in northern Europe. The three most cost effective methods of conserving UK gas supply are insulation, insulation and insulation. Recent improvements in regulations means that new build housing in the future should be mediocre instead of dreadful, but low build quality and an almost total lack of enforcement of the regulations in practice means new build is still dreadful.
At current rate of new build, 80% of the existing housing stock will still be occupied in 2050...
Pilot lights is not the only reason. Gas is usually cut off to the biggest users first because they result in the biggest cuts in demand in the shortest time, and putting them back on is quicker. Less manpower and less persuasion (by force?) of reluctant users is required to achieve it. Also for political reasons, more users equals more votes.
If a gas network loses supply in an unplanned way, demand will fall off as users stop using the supply, whether manually or automatically. Valves in the pipelines may shut automatically or maually. This then may result in pressures recovering/rising in parts of the network. If those automatic cut off systems are not present and pilot lights are out gas will escape and cause explosions. Air and water can also enter the pipes if gas pressure is low. Half the low pressure network in some UK cities is over 100 years old and leaks are everywhere, mostly small but many of them. Getting this air and water out of the system is a big job.
Before a gas network can be turned on again after a cut all user supplies have to be visited to make sure the meter supply valve is off. Once all users are off the gas supply has to to be checked to make sure pressures are OK and there is no air in the system. This will be done in small groups of users dependent on valve locations and network layout. Typically a few streets at a time will have this done. It may involve digging holes in the streets where valves are missing or rusty. The switch from coal gas to natural gas in the UK in the 1970's was a similar project. When thousands of users are affected this needs huge numbers of qualified staff, vehicles and materials. A city of millions could take months to switch on again. This happened in Austrailia, can't remember the city.
I expect that sometime after 2020 a person(s) in the UK will have to decide which city will get gas and which will not. Once a city/region loses supply it may stay off, becuse the logistics of switching gas on again can't be justified when supply may dissappear again soon. This will cause mass movements of people to places where there is still heat, and political stress.
In Austrailian water shortages there were similar priority issues. Farms got cut off first, and cities/homes got the water. This was a short term solution with immediate political benefits. Long term people can live without washing but not without food.
(I worked for 12 years in the UK nat gas industry)
My understanding, and what has been reported on TOD before, is that homes are the last to see their gas shut off in an emergency. This is due to the issue of pilot lights going out and the resulting explosions when the gas service is resumes. Industry and other big users will see the first shut offs when a gas crisis emerges.
edit:
Heading out wrote
In a shortage, businesses lose gas before homes
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/6/231245/555
So what does this mean, that "If electric power generation loses, everything else collapses."?
I think E-P is proposing a reduction, not a shut-off. The reduction would come from sharply higher prices, I presume.
I believe the UK's residential heat is mostly electrical.
That makes sense, I guess my brain is just too binary and I missed it. But what is to keep people from outbidding industry for gas useage?
The logical thing would be for people to use a kotatsu but we end up seeing things like this:
http://www.koco.com/news/18302831/detail.html
Obviously, she shouldn't have left her children in the oven. Had she taken them out when they were done, they would not have caught fire!
That reply rates quite high on the Asperger's chart.
From another topper of that chart, what else from someone whose handle is Engineer-Poet?
What? Are you another of those neurotypicals!? You venomous snake, you! :-)
I think somebody needs to re-read Grimm's Fairy Tales.
Hi Nick,
Actually, natural gas dominates the residential space heating market with approximately a two-third share; electricity accounts for about 16 per cent.
Cheers,
Paul
I live in London UK in a 120 apartment block and we moved from oil to gas for the central boiler about 15 years ago.
We now get our gas at wholesale (Industrial) rates which are about 50% less than residential rates. There are, however, some potential downsides to this that we have yet to experiance.
My understanding is that since margins are much greater for residential it is the last portion of supply to be reduced. So we get a lower rate but we increase our risk of supply disruption...
There is a small movement within the block that wishes to move to individual gas boilers in each apartment -I aim to resist this move if it ever gains traction as I still believe the communal system gives advantages. It would be almost impossible to supplement individual systems with renewable solar for example.
Regards, Nick.
Hi Nick,
The cost and logistics of installing one hundred and twenty condensing boilers should hopefully keep this from happening. If the primary motivation is to encourage the more efficient use of energy and ensure greater fairness (i.e., each tenant pays for only what they use), there are sub-metering systems that permit these costs to be charged back on a unit by unit basis.
See: http://www.wilsonenergy.co.uk/case_studies.html
Cheers,
Paul
That's good to know.
What about home cooking? I had the particular impression that electric stoves were the norm. I remember someone talking about the UK grid being challenged when everyone put a kettle on during a television commercial (advert?) break.
Hi Nick,
Digging a little further, in 2006, 87 per cent of UK homes with central heating are fuelled by gas (non centrally heated homes represent less than nine percent of all housing stock). With respect to cooking, natural gas and electric are fairly equal, with natural gas holding a slight lead in fuel use (53 versus 46 per cent).
Electric kettles and commercial breaks in a country that loves its tea can certainly wreck havoc, considering your basic Russell Hobbs can draw 3,000-watts.
See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove/stories/people/teatimebritain.shtml
Related: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Media+Centre/PressReleases/15-06-06.htm
Cheers,
Paul
I can't imagine why you think that the UK's residential heat is mostly electrical - although there is some electrical, the vast majority is either gas or oil fired with some LPG.
I do wonder which fuel might be best for current new installations - I am inclining towards thinking that electrical would be best, but there are clear issues with the necessary increase in electrical generating capacity if we switch over to using it for heating in a big way (as well as the additional amount potentially needed for charging vehicles too).
Solid fuel (specifically wood) also has really significant capacity issues, plus the problems with air pollution that would come with a large amount of wood being burnt. I have heard that the UK could not support more than 10% of its population from wood fuel assuming it were managed properly.
Although most UK residential heating is gas fired, almost all these systems use mains electricity to control the system. Without electricity, it doesn't work. Cutting electricity drastically cuts UK residential gas consumption as a side effect.
I am trying to set up a PV/mains powered battery backup supply. I will need to rewire the heating controls to switch between the mains supply and the backup supply when the lights go out, but at least I will keep warm as my neighbours freeze.
I might even become popular !
Buy a standard computer 110w UPS from any office supply/electronics shop (maplin) and supply your heating system trough it as per normal. Problem solved
Hi Rib,
A 110-watt UPS may be a little on the light side. My oil-fired boiler, Tekmar control system and main circulation pump draw a total of 247-watts and if the second pump that feeds two additional zones kicks on, that jumps to 327-watts. Also note that a light-duty UPS generally provides only enough juice to allow for an orderly shutdown of the PC; the runtime is not likely to be more than ten to fifteen minutes.
Cheers,
Paul
If you're heating with oil, you can use diesel for backup power.
That's one possibility. Our boiler is wired to a small, fuel efficient gas generator and whilst a diesel set would be nice, this low-cost solution has served us well thus far. Under normal circumstances, the bulk of our space heating needs are met by the ductless heat pumps with the boiler providing additional support when temperatures fall below -15C or -20C (there's some electric in-floor radiant heat as well, but it's seldom used).
With the aid of the generator, the boiler and indirect water heater are our primary source of heat and domestic hot water during extended power outages. I keep a minimum of 500-litres of heating oil on hand at all times and enough gasoline to fuel the generator for two to three months, assuming one to two hours use per day; that should be sufficient to bump up temperatures so that the pipes don't free. If the generator should break down or we exhaust our fuel reserves, there are four propane fireplaces that can used for spot heating. Propane is the fuel of last resort, as it would be used for cooking purposes as well (we try to keep the main tank topped up and a couple BBQ tanks as spares).
We've also worked hard to reduce our space heating requirements so that a larger percentage of our needs can be met through passive solar; over the past seven years, we've cut our home's energy usage by over 90 per cent -- whereas the previous home owners used 5,700 litres of fuel oil and 14,000 kWh of electricity per year, we're now down to 350 litres and 12,000 kWh, plus some 50 to 70 litres of propane (the latter mostly for clothes drying and the BBQ). This has reduced our household expenses considerably and, most importantly, allows us to stretch our fuel supplies to the greatest extent possible should the need arise.
Cheers,
Paul
I have two Rinnai room ventless gas heaters that require zero electricity (an optional fan on one to spread heat evenly around the room, it works fine without the fan on).
Small (because of ventless), 6,000 BTU (1.75 kW) in bathroom and 10,000 BTU (3 kW) in one bedroom. They will keep pipes (and you) from freezing !
I have two more advanced Rinnai ventless has room heaters that do require electricity to operate.
Choice of natural gas or propane units.
Best Hopes for staying warm !
Alan
Most UK domestic heating is gas fired or Oil very little electric. All newer gas heaters have spark ignition and no pliot light hence no electricty No Heat! Same goes for newer Gas Hobs they have a electric solenoid to cut of gas.
Hi Rib,
I can't speak for all gas cookers, but mine has electronic ignition and I can still light the hobs with a match or BBQ lighter. In fact, I use an induction hob for everyday cooking and gas only in the event of an extended power cut.
Cheers,
Paul
Ideally, home heating consumption would be cut back by efficiency measures. There is no simple way to discriminate between over-heating spaces vs. heating water or cooking.
If the electric grid runs out of fuel or is overloaded, almost every central-heating system goes down in the blackout. This turns one failure into two failures, plus serious impairment of commerce (can't handle refrigerated food without fridges, most businesses can't run without electronic cash registers), etc. Short-term fuel shortages can be dealt with by shutting down business, but over the long term this brings down everything else with it.
We can cut back a lot more on space heat than we can on electricity.
I understand this.
What I don't understand is with what mechanism will you bring this about?
Nick mentioned rationing by price. But that leads to the question how do you keep people from out bidding industry for the gas?
Or do you have another mechanism in mind?
You'll note that I specifically did not talk about mechanisms, just methods. Incentives and such are policy matters. There are all kinds of ways to push people to do the right thing, from lifeline rates for minimal usage with steep escalation afterwards, to PSAs, to free fittings for electric clothes and surveys of house insulation, to going around neighborhoods with thermal scanners.
There is also the option of "do nothing, and let the system fail." A policy of doing nothing is still a policy.
The UK also has the worst insulated housing stock in northern Europe. The three most cost effective methods of conserving UK gas supply are insulation, insulation and insulation. Recent improvements in regulations means that new build housing in the future should be mediocre instead of dreadful, but low build quality and an almost total lack of enforcement of the regulations in practice means new build is still dreadful.
At current rate of new build, 80% of the existing housing stock will still be occupied in 2050...
And phase change materials PCM's
..
Pilot lights is not the only reason. Gas is usually cut off to the biggest users first because they result in the biggest cuts in demand in the shortest time, and putting them back on is quicker. Less manpower and less persuasion (by force?) of reluctant users is required to achieve it. Also for political reasons, more users equals more votes.
If a gas network loses supply in an unplanned way, demand will fall off as users stop using the supply, whether manually or automatically. Valves in the pipelines may shut automatically or maually. This then may result in pressures recovering/rising in parts of the network. If those automatic cut off systems are not present and pilot lights are out gas will escape and cause explosions. Air and water can also enter the pipes if gas pressure is low. Half the low pressure network in some UK cities is over 100 years old and leaks are everywhere, mostly small but many of them. Getting this air and water out of the system is a big job.
Before a gas network can be turned on again after a cut all user supplies have to be visited to make sure the meter supply valve is off. Once all users are off the gas supply has to to be checked to make sure pressures are OK and there is no air in the system. This will be done in small groups of users dependent on valve locations and network layout. Typically a few streets at a time will have this done. It may involve digging holes in the streets where valves are missing or rusty. The switch from coal gas to natural gas in the UK in the 1970's was a similar project. When thousands of users are affected this needs huge numbers of qualified staff, vehicles and materials. A city of millions could take months to switch on again. This happened in Austrailia, can't remember the city.
I expect that sometime after 2020 a person(s) in the UK will have to decide which city will get gas and which will not. Once a city/region loses supply it may stay off, becuse the logistics of switching gas on again can't be justified when supply may dissappear again soon. This will cause mass movements of people to places where there is still heat, and political stress.
In Austrailian water shortages there were similar priority issues. Farms got cut off first, and cities/homes got the water. This was a short term solution with immediate political benefits. Long term people can live without washing but not without food.
(I worked for 12 years in the UK nat gas industry)
Thanks Max, a very good explanation.
..