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110 comments on Report: The Interplay between Climate Change and Peak Oil
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110 comments on Report: The Interplay between Climate Change and Peak Oil
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
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Hi Rembrandt.
First of all let me thank you (and all editors at TOD) for your posts: They force us thinking about our future, and it is a great value for us.
I disagree with an implicit assumpion of your think stream: we will purchase the oil at every price; so you do not take into account the VALUE of the drum, or in other words the impact of oil's price on the production. No barrel will be produced without a customer willing/capable to pay for that barrel.
In short: I think that all the heavy polluting & greenhouse oil of you post will unlikely be produced (at far as civilian/economic usage is implied :)!
I'm quite sure that we cannot pay the 90-120 $/b required for unconventional oil to be viable. We did it just for a bounch of months and in doing that we crashed our economies.
best regards
@ceox and Matt
I do not think the current cost price (90 dollars per barrel) will be a long term price level. 90 dollars per barrel is caused by external shocks in the business cycle (shortage of personnel, people etc.).
Rembrandt
$90 a barrel oil doesn't mean antyhing other than what it cost at the time based on what other things cost at the time. It is arbitrary in the sense that what was $90 yesterday may not be that tomorrow. Look at all the "half-million dollar homes" in the US now going for less than half that.
All that matters is EROEI. If it is positive, the field will be developed, though that is not to say that it won't be post-peak/post-collapse.
>All that matters is EROEI. If it is positive, the field will be developed, though that is not to say that it won't be post-peak/post-collapse.<
It would be logical if there is a correlation between long term prices and EROEI. I am going to research this in one of my thesis works in the next months.