89 comments on Peak Oil and Mass Communication
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I once had a high school teacher who told us this: "I am going to tell you something that I know to be the truth, and I would scream it from the highest mountain if I could make you believe it: There is no such thing as a revolution in the mind of man, there is only slow eventual evolution." Of course he, and I, would agree that there are a very few whose mind can grasp the eventual outcome of events that are unfolding, regardless of their severity, though they be denied by the vast majority of people.
Peak oil, or rather the eventual consequences of peak oil, is a revolutionary concept and they are arriving far too fast for general acceptance. It is only human nature that they be denied. The general public, regardless of the evidence to the contrary, will continue to take cheap energy for granted. They will continue to believe "X" will save us. And X is either the government, science, providence or God.
Peak oil will happen, or more correctly, has happened. The consequences of peak oil are currently happening but almost no one realizes it. They all expect there will be a huge recovery and the economy will return to growth, year after year and so on forever. It will happen because it has always happened that way in the past.
Even many of those who are acutely aware of peak oil believe that only good and better times will come from it. That is, they believe we will find something better than oil to fuel our society. This is the argument that Roger Connor made on TOD for many months.
The terrible consequences of peak oil, and peak everything else, will simply happen and they will come as a total surprise to the vast majority of people. They will panic, they will demand that action be taken to correct the situation, they will blame the Democrats or the Republicans or the government in general or the "elites" or "the powers that be" or anyone except the true culprit. And that culprit is none other than the evolutionary success of this rapacious primate called Homo sapiens.
Ron P.
Peak oil (2005-2008) is covered up by the financial crisis which was triggered by peak oil. It's the "greedy bankers" who are to be blamed.
Because they will mix up the peaking with "running out of oil" which is the next disaster. And this is the whole drama evolving now. Those who suppressed peak oil news wanted to avoid the panic and did not warn the banks that peak oil is around. Consequently, eternal growth was universally assumed, which caused mis-investments and ultimately the banking crisis. So this peak oil denial mode terribly backfired.
Like asking OPEC to pump more oil. Then the truth comes out about their paper barrels, all reserves will come under scrutiny and suddenly the world will realize there is much less oil than on the books. That will be the last act in the peak oil denial game.
And that might happen all within the next 5 years or so, if not earlier when there is another oil or oil proxy war but that will then also be used to cover up peak oil.
OPEC's paper barrels may not come under as much scrutiny as you think. A differnt scenario would have the western hordes clinging to OPEC's paper barrels and thumping the desk demanding they be produced...by force if necessary. It could all get very messy without the peak oil paradigm ever seeing the light of day.
We have been there before in 2008. That's what President Bush said in January 2008:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4140859
President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3514
Nevertheless he tried it again in May 2008:
Saudis Rebuff Bush, Politely, on Pumping More Oil
"President Bush used a private visit to King Abdullah’s ranch here on Friday to make another appeal for an increase in oil production that might give American consumers some relief at the gasoline pump. The Saudis responded by announcing they had decided a week ago on a modest increase of 300,000 barrels a day.
The White House said the increase would not be enough to lower gasoline prices, which are nearing $4 a gallon, and industry analysts called it mostly symbolic."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/world/middleeast/17prexy.html