Yes, but if Gale poses this as an either/or question: as in, are we seeing "Peak Oil" or are we seeing "Limits to Growth"? Then we need a good set of representative models that we can run against each other. Might as well die trying.

Interesting how mention of a deep "technical analysis" gets all the financial types hyperventilating with excitement, yet the same thing applied to a deep problem such as oil depletion is met with a relative thud.

I can one up the Homer Simpson reference:

Professor Frink: [drawing on a blackboard] Here is an ordinary square....
Police Chief Wiggum: Whoa, whoa - slow down, egghead!

Well, to be brutally honest, when it comes to the Shock Model I have sort of felt myself at times to be on the Wiggum side of the classroom :-)