I guess my thoughts here are that most people are going to remain ignorant until far too late. The perception will be that "things just aren't working" any more, but for the vast masses they won't really understand why. We saw some of this last year when gas prices spiked. All kinds of people were blaming OPEC, speculators, or greedy oil companies. You try and explain it to them, and they blow you off and repeat the previous assertions. I suspect that to an extent people are really looking for simple explanations, especially ones where there might be a relatively simple fix of some sort.

In the future I expect this pattern to be repeated. There will be some shortage of some sort - prices will spike, and the general public will be looking for more scapegoats. While they may never really grasp the underlying reality, the higher prices will ultimately force them to use less of whatever is in short supply, but there will still be a yearning to go back to what they had before.

That's a catch 22.
Nothing is going to change until a very significant percentage of the population recognizes just how dire the situation really is.
I agree with you though it will be more like a panic than a light bulb moment.

I agree with your stream of consciousness.
This incredibly complex hyper-specialized society/economy that is the current arrangement is very, very fragile and the complete result of a concentrated, cheap and artificial energy source.
Humans in industrialized societies have become so divorced from their true relationship to the environment and so narrow in their skills that the transition to a more natural and sustainable existence will be very disruptive. Ironically the societies that have benefited the least form the oil age will end up suffering the least in the years ahead. I guess there is such a thing as Karma after all.
People will begin to transition when their current situation is more trouble to them than it is worth.
Also once they see that they are not the only ones that can't "keep up appearances" it won't seem such an ego hit.........after all the only thing that makes people feel superior is being Relatively better off than the Jones'.

The rest of the letter (minus names)...

"In order to support science, research and innovation, the Australian Government is funding research and development at universities and Government research institutions. For example, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is working to develop technologies and behaviours that address sustainability issues into the future in many areas, including energy production, materials, transport, agriculture and land management.

The Government is also focused on promoting innovation amongst businesses in Australia who are working to develop and commercialise new ideas. Many of these innovations are aimed at allowing Australia to continue to grow in a sustainable manner. Last year Minister (name withheld) commissioned a review of Australia’s national innovation system looking at how the Government can better target Australia’s innovation capabilities and examining what principles and actions might better position Australia to unlock its full innovative potential. The Government will be providing a full response to the Review of the National Innovation System as part of the budget process.

In addition, the Government has in place a number of initiatives to assist companies to develop and commercialise innovative ideas. For example, through the R&D Tax Concession, the Government provides a tax concession for businesses undertaking research and development. Another innovation initiative is the Climate Ready program, which provides grants to businesses to support research and development, proof-of-concept and early-stage commercialization activities to develop solutions to climate change challenges.

The Re-tooling for Climate Change program will help small and medium sized Australian manufacturers reduce their environmental footprint, through projects that improve the energy and/or water efficiency of their production processes. The Green Building Fund aims to reduce the impact of Australia’s built environment on green house gas emissions, by reducing the energy consumed in the operation of existing commercial office buildings. In addition, the Enterprise Connect network provides comprehensive support to Australian small and medium sized enterprises (SME’s), to help them become more innovative, efficient and competitive.

Through research funding and innovation initiatives such as these, the Government is supporting the research and development activities of research institutions and companies throughout Australia who are working on solutions to ensure that Australia and the world can continue to experience growth in a sustainable manner.

For example, CSIRO and a number of Australian companies are developing strains of algae which can produce oil which could power Australia’s transport fleet in the future when conventional oil supplies are in decline. The University of New South Wales, CSIRO and the Australian National University, as well as a number of innovative Australian businesses, are developing world leading solar power technologies, which can replace fossil fuel usage for electricity generation. CSIRO is also developing an intelligent building management system for commercial buildings which operates, controls and monitors energy consumption and implements energy management programs and water saving devices on hydraulic fittings and fixtures. CSIRO estimate that the system can reduce a buildings energy use by around 30 per cent.

Research is also being undertaken in a number of other areas, which will help address the problem of maintaining sustainable growth, such as waste, food production, urban design, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, water management and biodiversity conservation. Through innovation and technological advancement, long-term growth can continue, in a sustainable manner

Thank you again for taking the time to write to the Government on this issue.

Yours sincerely"...