I guess my thoughts here are that most people are going to remain ignorant until far too late. The perception will be that "things just aren't working" any more, but for the vast masses they won't really understand why. We saw some of this last year when gas prices spiked. All kinds of people were blaming OPEC, speculators, or greedy oil companies. You try and explain it to them, and they blow you off and repeat the previous assertions. I suspect that to an extent people are really looking for simple explanations, especially ones where there might be a relatively simple fix of some sort.

In the future I expect this pattern to be repeated. There will be some shortage of some sort - prices will spike, and the general public will be looking for more scapegoats. While they may never really grasp the underlying reality, the higher prices will ultimately force them to use less of whatever is in short supply, but there will still be a yearning to go back to what they had before.

That's a catch 22.
Nothing is going to change until a very significant percentage of the population recognizes just how dire the situation really is.
I agree with you though it will be more like a panic than a light bulb moment.