Memmel
I could not agree more with your predictions for the near term future. We have simply left it too late to make any significant changes to the energy depleted world we face.

I have recently undertaken an exercise in forecasting the conversion of the Australian economy onto a completly renewable base. The figures are sobering to say the least. It works out to be around 370% of GDP. I don't imagine that the US numbers would be greatly different.

Making a sizable dent in this is just not possible while we continue with a paradigm of exponential growth and BAU. The probable scenario of rapid, cyclical oil price spikes followed by crashes will further discourage private investment in alternatives. Governments will continue to use the funds they can either borrow or print to try to prop up the financial sector because of both, the influence from this sector and the fact that it now represents the largest employer in most western economies. It is a bit hard to see any path forward without there first being a major social discontinuity.