I agree that gas is key, but we have a problem that no one realizes what potential is available, if someone would work to make the natural gas market work properly. We have a huge number of natural gas producers who are putting rigs down, because at this price it makes no sense to drill.

In many ways, the natural gas market is similar to agriculture. It needs stable prices for producers to make intelligent investment decisions. But no one in governmental office has figured this out. In fact, natural gas is considered one of the "bad" carbon emitters by some, even though it is a lot better than coal (assuming one can keep leaks to a minimum).

I think a cap and trade program will tend to shift electricity production from coal to natural gas. I don't see it having much effect on wind, because capital requirements are so high, and there are few firms with the "tax appetite" for the tax credits that are theoretically available to wind and solar, but in practice have limited applicability. Also, wind needs 5% interest rates (plus tax credits) to be competitive. Such low interest rates are (sort of) available now, but it is hard to see how interest rates can be kept at the artificially low levels where they are currently, long term.

If electricity production shifts from coal to natural gas, this won't help US energy availability--it will still go down. Oil consumption will decline; natural gas will increase, but as a substitute for reduced coal production; and wind will not increase very much.

I don't see nuclear increasing much either, because of the high up front costs, the fact that electrical consumption is not now growing, and the lack of large scale government programs to finance additional nuclear production.