Gail,I sincerely hope that if tshtf for real that somebody out there who is capable of surviving will take you in,as you have earned your spot by putting so much into helping your readers see and understand what the future may look like.

Now I am getting sort of old myself and also helping take care of my parents,who with luck might live another ten or fifteen years,and I hope that I can with a little help keep this old farm running that long no matter what.I am not absolutely sure that it can be done, but we are gradually doing what must be done to return to the ways of my grandparents,who grew up farming with mules and used hardly any fossil fuels except a little kerosene for light and some coal indirectly in the iron tools commonly used before automobiles arrived in the twenties, followed by electricity in the thirties.

The thing that worries me the most is that if things do get really nasty,we will probably sooner or later fall victim to a maruading gang of some sort,although the pickings will be relatively slim and the price high in these mountians,where even little old lady Sunday school teachers "know how to shoot Pappa's gun".We will if necessary fall back still farther to the old ways to the extent we can and partially revive the klans traditions of the Scots and Irish and help look after each other by whatever means are available.My paternal grand father habitually ate with a knife, a habit he had from his Daddy and Grand Daddy before him.People have lived with weapons constantly ready to hand in many times and many places,and we may yet do so ourselves.

As you have pointed out above,the likelihood of a typical modern day urban citizen being able to survive by subsistence farming is small to nonexistent.I am really glad to see you,as one of the leading lights of this forum, acknowledge this harsh truth without mincing words.I am afraid that some readers here who lack the requisite knowledge to seperate the bullxxxx from the rest of the discussion of organic fertilizers ,so to speak,will be taken in by some of the many grossly overoptimistic writers and visionaries in regard to food self sufficiency.

If so,they may make plans,either long term or short,which could concievably cost them thier lives and the lives of thier children.

I am not personally convinved that the lights are going out,although I do readily acknowledge that it can happen, and am planning accordingly.My personal guess is that unless there is a full scale war,we will survive the next few decades (without very many if any people starving or freezing in the US)by going onto a wartime sort of footing.People will be moving to warmer parts of the country and doubling up to save on rent and utilities.Millions of people will be on the eqiuvalent of food stamps,and most of the nonessential consumer society taken for granted today will be only a fond memory.Work of some sort that will be useful in transitioning to a low energy society will be available in most places,paid for of course with government funds.Rationing of some products such as gasoline will be draconian.Life could get pretty ugly, especially in the larger cities,when the young men find themselves either unemployed or at best able to get only a subsistence wage dead end job.

Once the reality of peak oil jackhammers itself into the heads of the people,the politicians will as usual see which way the wind is blowing and get out in front to lead us where we are going any way.Hopefully there will still be enough industrial capacity to build wind and solar infrastructure the way we used to build highways and shopping malls.I do not see why this should be such a big problem,since manpower will be plentiful to say the least,and many existing industrial facilities can be converted to new products.A machine used today to make gears for trucks can very easily be modified to make gears for windmills,and the factory that produces the fiberglass for the hoods and fenders can almost certainly adjust to making fiberglass for turbine blades.Life should return to something approaching "normal"within the lives of todays toddlers if I am right.The generations that follow will have to make such further adjustments as they find necessary.It should be easier for them,since the first step of any journey is the hardest.They will at least have the advantage of knowing that they MUST adapt.As I said before,this is just my personal estimate of what the future holds for us here in the US.I expect the Four Horsemen will be afield in Asia and a good many other places.

I am always try to say so when I am just guessing or breezing.When I talk agriculture you may rest assured that I have walked that walk in a way that only a few people still around can relate to from personal experience.I plowed some with my grandfathers mules when I was a kid, and my Daddy still plowed our garden with the last mule in the family up into the nineties-although we have had tractors since the forties.(Had to keep the mule in training,you see ,as well as preserve the old ways for old times sake.)I also happen to hold a degree in ag from a well regarded university.

Listen folks.

Gail is right.Farming at the subsistence level is brutally hard work,the learning curve is steep,suitable land is not to be found just anywhere,and the hours are long.If you think the big crash is on its way,and you think you will need to be food self sufficient ,you need to get started right now by taking a serious look at the land and climate of your home turf.The odds are high that you will need to move.Start getting your hands dirty now.You have a realistic shot at making it- starting from scratch if you are healthy and not too old-if you are willing to do what it takes,and the crash doesn't arrive for a few years.