I don't follow the Olduvai Theory for a slightly different reason. I think we need a better theory for oil depletion as an independent and isolated phenomenom. If we can nail this bit first then we can go on to model a more comprehensive scenario. IMO, we are not quite there yet.

It is very similar to climate change/global warming modelers who use their simulations to concentrate on mean temperature changes. They don't necessarily use the model to postulate on standards of living after a rise of temperature occurs. This is understandable as they have their hands full just getting the temperature predictions under control. I have the same feeling WRT Olduvai Theory -- I don't look at it too closely, as I prefer to work on the oil depletion by itself and try to get that right.

Hello WHT,

Thxs for responding. My intuitive viewpoint [might be wrong] is that the huddled masses can more readily perceive a decline in SL, therefore they would be much more amenable to Peak [Everything] Outreach versus the technical arcana of FF-depletion & climate change.

For example: my guess is that more people are aware of biotic extinction rates and the vast numbers of endangered species than the combined numbers of those aware of Peak Oil & Climate Change. Tv and other media seems to do a pretty good job of spreading this message as evidenced by the popularity of shows such as the Animal Planet, Nat Geo, Discovery, etc. People can emotionally relate to the loss of tigers, cheetahs, bats, possible future hunger, etc versus the obtuse nebulousness of Boe/Capita. People shoplifting honey, and/or stealing honey from beehives is a more concrete example of awareness of their SL decline. The rapid growth of gardening is another example of people seeking subconscious reconnection with their innate territoriality.

I agree that your great work on analysis and valuable additions of energy modeling is important to achieve future breakthroughs with top-level policy makers, but IMO: the MEGO** effect would kick in for most of the huddled masses because of our general innumeracy as explained by Dr. Albert Bartlett. Roadkill has an opposite response [we nearly all have to get a glimpse however brief], and I hope we can continue to detail this overall species decline trend as we go postPeak so that people cannot avert their eyes from what is actually occurring in real-time.

**My Eyes Glaze Over

You are exactly right. Yet I have veered toward the habit of only working on things that I can understand to the last detail. The dialectic trumps the rhetoric for me, and I will leave the populism to others.