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162 comments on Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

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Gail the Actuary on July 3, 2009 - 12:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Even if we don't want to equate per capita energy with standard of living, I think there is some validity to what Duncan is looking at. It clearly doesn't equate with happiness, but it does measure something of importance--how much of the earth's resources we are using each year.

Reducing the use of earth's resources is tricky. Clearly, there are many, even in the "developed" countries, who are barely getting along now. Think of all of those who are unemployed, or have minimum wage jobs now. A reduction in energy usage needs somehow to leave even the poor with enough--otherwise there is starvation and homelessness.

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oldfarmermac on July 4, 2009 - 1:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Once energy inefficiencies are wrung out by rising prices,the energy consumption/living standard model looks as if it will hold up just fine to me.Prices are already much higher in Europe and no one should be suprised that they are therefore much more energy efficient than we are here in the states.

Furthermore historical development patterns well established in Europe before the arrival of the automobile probably play a significant part in this debate-any world travelers on the Drum tonight can elaborate.

And of course there is no reason to think that we can't raise energy efficieny levels substantially by reorganizing-shipping by rail instead of truck,etc-and by improving- getting Prius mileage out of all our cars,tec.

But the CORRELATION WILL STILL BE VERY VERY STRONG and I am frankly amazed that so many regulars here don't seem to realize this obvious fact.Maybe every body is more interested tonite in playing gotcha.Lots of good metrics need "calibrating" from time to time.

My apple production is very well correlated ,on average, with my diesel consumption,but my diesel consumption per bushel is gradually falling.

Take away my diesel and my apple production will plummet.So will all the living standards every body seems to think are not correlated with energy consumption.

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marcosdumay on July 4, 2009 - 1:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

After most of the ineficiences go away, energy use per capta may become a good heuristic. Yep, it is good enough for analising the EU, or the South America, or Asia. Yet, it isn't good enough to apply into the entire world today.

Maybe after energy becomes more expensive, it will be good enough for comparing very different countries. Today it isn't.

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162 comments on Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

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