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92 comments on Aleklett: Australia highly vulnerable to oil shortages
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92 comments on Aleklett: Australia highly vulnerable to oil shortages
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GAIA Host Collective
I'll need to study Aleklett's supposed statements on electric vehicles a bit more closely. I agree with the notion of electric behicles being very useful in our urbanised communities. The problem however is that there's no way our largely import-dependent small car market could be supplied (on current trends) with appropriate vehicles to satisfy such a potential need, especially given the short time lines we are all concerned with. It took nearly 2 decades to swap Australia's car fleet over to unleaded fuel, even with the incentive of a UL discount etc. I reckon this gives us a fair idea of the scope involved in even swapping over to something like 25-50% electric vehicle use. EVs will necessarily be a bit smaller and/or less powerful (so may not suit some people or purposes) and going on current trends, may well be more expensive (in a time when household incomes will be buying less). Perhaps it's this conundrum that Aleklett is referring to. Perhaps it's time for a radical, State-sponsored retooling programme at the now-defunct Mitsubishi premises and maybe at Holden's as well? I'm aware the UniSA has a great electric commuter car all ready to go and just looking for a production line somewhere...
More PT is a good thing of course. But it's clear from contemporary experience that at the first big jump in fuel prices or at the first fuel shortage, any spare or increased capacity in PT will immediately (instantly) be absorbed. Remember PT 'spare capacity' is only useful at commuter 'rush' hour when the vast majority of PT users want to travel. It matters not a jot that buses and trains might be half empty the day before! Australia does need vastly increased PT facilities, but it also needs to pursue other measures that barely make it on to the agenda but are just as (if not more) important - 'bicycle highways' across all major urban areas, urban consolidation and Transport Oriented Developments on a grand scale and much, much, much(!!!) more focussed industrial and similarly travel-dependent planning to minimise workplace and occupational travel. Adelaide (for instance) is 50% the size of Los Angeles, the USA's 5th largest city (but with less than 10% of LA's revenue base). Planning a viable transport future for the city presents a particular challenge to the Peak Oil-aware planner and politician that I'm sure is also felt in other Australian cities. And we're only talking about direct transport services - there's the health system, agricultural, industrial and supply-chain systems and the whole Government and non-Gov. service sector to consider as well. Maybe it's too late - who knows...
Electric vehicles are not just for small cars a number of SUV were manufactured as EV versions. The savings will be greater with vehicles like the Commodore coming out as PHEV's, both saving when in ICE mode as well as EV mode.
I think you are right about the problems of PT expansion, none the less there are logical extensions to rail lines in most cities that would make a contribution to reducing oil use. Short term CNG conversions would be a fast response just as Iran did a few years ago, surely we are capable of converting more than the 400,000 vehicles per year.
It may not come to an emergency, just a continued relentless increase in oil costs, that will drive a rapid conversion from ICE to PHEV and EV. Seems logical for mining vehicles and heavy construction vehicles to convert from diesel to CNG.
I beleive that Mitsubishi have put a $60K price tag in the iMiev for sale in Japan. I'm sure they'll just fly out the door at that rate!
Putting my consumer hat on for a moment, if I am in the market for a car formy family and the choice is an iMiev at $60K and annual running costs of say $3K or a Ford Territory for $40K and annual costs of $10K, I'd have togowith the SUV for sheer utility. It might cost more to run but I can do so much more with it. I imagine that an equivalent E-SUV would have to be priced in the $200K area which is just so far out of reach of the masses which is why nobody is building one. EV's will only be good for small scale lightweight personal transporters. Bikes and Trikes or tiny micro cars like the iMiev. (all of which I am for)
Once you get past a certain power to weight ratio the best place for the electric source is external to the vehicle - eg a power station run by your fuel of choice and delivered to the motor via rails or overhead cables.
Neither the micro-EV or the on-rail PT sytems even working together is going to replace the flexibility and personal freedom that ICE cars provide today. Wemay all still be ableto get around and do our daily business, but we will all ahve to useamny diofferetn modes of transport and pick the appropriate one for the job we have to do. i.e. need milk from the shop - walk. Need to go to your CBD job - get the train. Taking the family to see grandma two suburbs over - bike. Grocery shopping - (E)bike and trailer. Building contractor, plumbers, electricians, glaziers (maybe ICE on CNG or expensive SynFuel or petroleum).
The point is lots of us have just one ICE car size vehicle which can perform all these functions and do it very cheaply. Building an EV which replicates the same personal freedom and low running cost seems to be proving technically very challenging. I keep looking for the balck swan technical breakthroughs which seem to come in many other areas but are proving elusive in EV battery tech.
Termoil
When oil goes over $200 a barrel "ICE vehicles will no longer perform all these functions and do it cheaply" but a PHEV will. PHEV platforms are not limited to a small car, it can power a 10 tone truck.
Hi Neil,
$200 oil might mean $2.50AUD a litre at the pump. If it happens within the next twelve months, people will scream long and hard but they will still fill their tanks. They may reduce driving, car pool, not go on long driving holidays etc but they will still have the sunk cost of the cars in their garages. In the overall scheme of things ICE cars would still very be cheap, versatile transport. Australians have plenty of fat to cut before they will get rid of their attachment to cars.
Exactly how many PHEV models are available in the showrooms today or planned to roll out in the next year or two? Last year when petrol got into $1.70s, the arse fell out of the motor car car market and hasn't recovered. I can't really see how even higher oil prices are going to motivate millions of people to junk their ICE investments and fork out even bigger money for PHEVS. Besides, who's gonna finance it all?
I think you're right Termoil, I can't see that electric vehicles are going to make a major impact soon in Australia or here in the UK. At a time that the country is in a recession and they are talking about reducing public expenditure - who is going to pay for the infrastructure to make them practical/usable apart from in city centres?
Here in UK we've been paying around £1 (A$ 2) a litre petrol/£1.05 (A$ 2.10)diesel for a couple of years now with a spike last year when world oil was at $140+ a barrel of £1.32 (A$2.65) for diesel. There was a bit of a reduction in miles driven at the peak and a lot of public outcry but it quickly went back 'to normal' as prices dropped. I'm personally still driving 20,000 miles a year (two thirds/12k miles is just getting to work). So 'slow/steady' rises do seem to be absorbed. If oil goes to $200 a barrel then by looking at past ratios I estimate that our prices will go up to around £1.80-£1.90 level (A$3.60-A$3.80). If this happens in the near future/quickly (18mths) it is going to be a major headache as our society isn't ready but I'm sure we will cope as a lot of people can reduce their mileage dramatically and relatively easily without reducing their quality of life (flexible working from home, working the week over 4 days rather than 5, lift sharing, public transport, reducing travel speed, getting a more efficient car (my present one only does 45mpg)). I know I can, and am working on my lifestyle/behaviour now to try an stay ahead of the price rises.
Farestbob,
"who is going to pay for the infrastructure to make them practical/usable apart from in city centres?
What infrastructure? all you need is an outdoor 220 or 240 V outlet(110V in US). Most car ports and garages already have them, if not easy to install.
Your 20km drive to work( 40km round trip) can be handled by all EV's, and most PHEV can at least do the one-way trip in electric mode. Sounds like you could be saving a lot using an electric vehicle if petrol goes to higher than $3/L. In the meantime you can do what I did in the US in the 1070's car pool with 2 or 3 others, until your back-ordered EV arrives, car pooling is the fastest conservation measure if mass transit is not available.
Neil
The other change we need to put in place is timed metering. The system would struggle to handle the load peak at 6.00pm if we had a significant proportion of EVs.
Ideally recharging would occur during the day where it could be matched by solar generation, but the infrastructure associated with both the demand and supply would take many years to put in place. The immediate solution is timed metering to houses and payment of off peak rates for charging at night. This is relatively simple to impliment and could be rolled out progressively with the uptake of EVs.
They can also do large trucks: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0f1AlrG8gVU
That's interesting - Meridian Energy (one of the electricity companies in NZ) have run a promo with an iMiev prototype. Their PR blurb is very shy of mentioning any price
"The i MiEV will be available in New Zealand in 2010, but no pricing is available yet. To get a glimpse of how exciting the future of transport is set to be, visit www.imiev.co.nz"
Even worse, this is the type of use they are promoting ...
"The great thing is that you wouldn’t mind popping out. Normally, we wouldn’t make that extra trip to the shop because it’s going to cost and add more carbon dioxide into the air"
I.e. a trip to the shop that makes sense on a bike (or heaven forbid by walking) can now be done guilt free in a car. Anything to keep our happy motoring lifestyle going.