The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

45 comments on Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Gail the Actuary on July 7, 2009 - 10:46am

Thanks for your update! Always interesting!

Would it make sense sometime to put together an exhibit of just very recent forecasts? So much has happened in the last year, that I wonder if some of the forecasters would want to change their forecasts.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

The Dude on July 7, 2009 - 1:17pm

By the same token, do you have info on older forecasts? Freddy Hutter tracks these, Lahèrrere won the blue prize for 2008, predicting 85 mb/d with 85.5 mb/d actual, prediction from 1997. FWIW, as they say.

Would be interesting as well to see the MASE applied to each class of forecasting, or price calls.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

The Dude on July 8, 2009 - 4:48am

Here's the forecasts ranked by MASE score; also threw in peak dates - had to leave out date ranges owing to lack of ability/time:

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Sam Foucher on July 8, 2009 - 8:14am

Thanks!

It's a nice way to show the results, I'm going to keep the idea.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

andrew on July 8, 2009 - 8:17am

can someone test if there is a statistically significant correlation between assumed/predicted peak date and accuracy -- it seems that the 10 best performing models all peak in the next 5 years, while 10 out of the worst 15 predict a peak 20 or more years from now.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

45 comments on Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Search The Oil Drum with Google

Support The Oil Drum

Click the button to learn about supporting The Oil Drum with a secure donation.

Peak Oil Primers

Beware email scams!

Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.

“Data always beats theories. 'Look at data three times and then come to a conclusion,' versus 'coming to a conclusion and searching for some data.' The former will win every time.”

—Matthew Simmons, ASPO-USA conference, Boston, MA, October 26, 2006