<The Oil Drum available for Amazon Kindle The Oil Drum DrumBeat: July 8, 2009>

45 comments on Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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The Dude on July 7, 2009 - 1:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

By the same token, do you have info on older forecasts? Freddy Hutter tracks these, Lahèrrere won the blue prize for 2008, predicting 85 mb/d with 85.5 mb/d actual, prediction from 1997. FWIW, as they say.

Would be interesting as well to see the MASE applied to each class of forecasting, or price calls.

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The Dude on July 8, 2009 - 4:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here's the forecasts ranked by MASE score; also threw in peak dates - had to leave out date ranges owing to lack of ability/time:

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Sam Foucher on July 8, 2009 - 8:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks!

It's a nice way to show the results, I'm going to keep the idea.

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andrew on July 8, 2009 - 8:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

can someone test if there is a statistically significant correlation between assumed/predicted peak date and accuracy -- it seems that the 10 best performing models all peak in the next 5 years, while 10 out of the worst 15 predict a peak 20 or more years from now.

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45 comments on Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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