 | Risk Assessments: Playing the "What If?" Game | The Oil Drum | Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan |  |
80 comments on DrumBeat: July 3, 2009
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80 comments on DrumBeat: July 3, 2009
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www.leap2020.eu concluded in its' latest bulletin it's highly likely the US and the Uk wil default on their debt by the end of summer.
Last week I re-watched The End of Suburbia(from Nov. 2004) and it was astonishing how the predictions of various characters(Heinberg, Klare) for 5 years out back then were so accurate. I was in some sort of shock really!
Leap2020 is interesting, but as always, I think they're wrong on the timing. They predicted a systemic economic meltdown for 2006. The fed was supposed to stand firm against inflation, tightening the money supply. The dollar was supposed to have collapsed by now.
I only follow theirs since about 1 year or so. It is interesting as you say. Anyway thanks for pointing out they got it wrong back in 2006. I'm always pretty critical in everything I read anyway.
Actually, I bought a new used car today; the old one was getting too small (actually, the kids are getting too big) and maintenance costs were escalating. It's a 4 cylinder 1.6 liter.
Picking exact dates is always difficult. However there is always a tendency to see things happening earlier than they actually happen. Seasoned stock traders know that insider traders are nearly always right and nearly always early. They see their companies economic indicators telling them of either disaster or greater profits. But these events are never as imminent as they believe. The economy is a similar case.
However world oil production has peaked and the economy of the US is currently in the process of collapsing. Just how long this process will take is purely guesswork.
Ron P.
Exactly. Especially for Leap2020. I think they confine their predictions to 6 months to a year out. They've been predicting imminent collapse for years now. Eventually, they'll be right.
I do think they are right on the fundamentals (aside from a certain euro-centrism), but probably not on the timing. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and all that.
Not only that, but the system has a vested interest in maintaining itself and trying to prevent collapse. There may be many bad side effects to the actions (bailouts, etc), but it does have the effect of kicking the can down the road a bit..
EricY - "There may be many bad side effects to the actions (bailouts, etc), but it does have the effect of kicking the can down the road a bit.."
I very much disagree that the can has been kicked at all. Not only are things not staying static but they are worse in many respects,e.g., layoffs continue at a high rate and show no sign of even leveling off.
And, consider "the bad side effects: I'd refer to them as the disasterous side effects. The US is going to go down in flames.
I wish I had more time but I have to get back to the garden.
Todd
In thinking about the future, I am wondering if anyone would care to predict what the Christmas buying season this year (only 5 months away from the start?) will be like for merchants.
If the economy stays down as I suspect, I would guess that the merchants will take a shellacking which will leave many manufacturers in trouble also. Could make it very difficult for things to turn up in the first quarter or two of 2010?
"there is always a tendency to see things happening earlier than they actually happen"
Yeah, look at CC. And on your first post today, PO IMO guarantees collapse ISO make it "likely". It is indeed all about timing and I more and more lean to the slow catabolic collapse scenario as Leanan is depicting.
Cheers Ron.
Folks who Twitter, Text or chat on the internet know all the acronyms. I don't do any of those things so I often have a problem with them. I have no problem with most of them like PO or IMO but others leave me guessing. CC? Crude + Condensate? Carbon Copy? Google says it is most likely Creative Commons but I doubt that.
And how about ISO? Google says it is International Organization for Standardization but I seriously doubt that is what you meant also.
Ron P.
Catabolic Collapse. There's an essay here.
I work for the government and I couldn't survive without Acronym Finder
There is an Acronym Guide on TOD HERE
Not sure how you get to it, I found it in my bookmarks. Still missing some key acronyms like NPK, I-NPK, O-NPK, ISO=butane?
NPK are the respective elements of fertilizer; I for inorganic, O for organic.
N = Nitrogen
P = Phosphorus
K = Potassium
Alan
Regarding EOS, I agree. The trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM