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109 comments on Rita Ashore...Amazing Destruction...Will She Stall? Will She Come Back to the Gulf?

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qmed2005 on September 23, 2005 - 8:27am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Given just how much model guidance has changed, not inconceivable that the system will actually come back to Gulf and re-form at some point. Any medium term weather-guessers with a thought?
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Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 9:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
that's a lot of what the discussion is over at easternuswx.com today.  they have NO clue.  they're talkin' curly-qs, stall-outs, all sorts of crap.
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Rajiv on September 23, 2005 - 9:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The models seems to indicate that Rita is stalling and circling around Crawford, TX -- any clue as to why?
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Fire Temple on September 23, 2005 - 9:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Crawford?  May be Rita is looking for Bush!  
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Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 10:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My general impression is that HHC has no clue either. Rita seems to be some kind of anamoly.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. SINCE RITA HAS COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HR..AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY... POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...
I think that just about covers it.
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Khebab on September 23, 2005 - 10:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Check the comments on thestormtrack.com, Rita seems to weaken because it's approaching land and dry air, the water is also less warm. The eye seems to be very instable.
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Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 10:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for the link. And they've just posted a story "Water Cascades Over New Orleans Levee". (See my comment below)

"Water poured over a patched levee Friday, cascading into one of the city's lowest-lying neighborhoods and heightening fears that Hurricane Rita would re-flood this devastated city...

It's already happening!
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