84 comments on Is Peak Oil Real? A List of Countries Past Peak
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84 comments on Is Peak Oil Real? A List of Countries Past Peak
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Matt asked me to post this forecast by Dr. Bakhtiari of Iranian production / consumption:
The forecast can be found at http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/paper/BakhtiariPaper.doc
Matt has superimposed EIA's production data on the same graph with Dr. Bakhtiari's forecast.
IIRC, the Iranians have subsidized gasoline prices, and they are obscenely low. Ultimately it is the exports that they sell that help to pay for this. When the exports start to drop it will create a huge financial problem for them.
Sam's low case for net oil exports pretty closely matches Dr. Bakhtiar's projection. Here is Sam's production & consumption outlook for Iran: