The Oil Drum

54 comments on Resource Page--UPDATED for Landfall

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Dave Cohen on September 20, 2005 - 6:18pm

This is very interesting. It appears from the 26°C Isotherm graphic that Rita will pass over high TCHP areas tomorrow and gain intensity. I think that NHC is thinking Rita could become a Category 3 on Wednesday.

We are in limbo now and throughout tomorrow. I call Thursday the "Day of Judgement" -- when the hurricane will begin its jog to the Northwest -- and Friday is the "Day of Reckoning" -- when the hurricane will pass through whatever oil & gas infrastructure it is going to hit -- probably at its maximum intensity. We will know on that day whether the Texas refineries are going to be heavily damaged.

All indications look like most of Louisiana, including New Orleans, will be spared the worst. Thank God.

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Slippery Slope on September 20, 2005 - 9:27pm

Right, it looks like Rita will pass over a pool of high TCHP sea water about 2 PM Wednesday. NOAA forecasts an increase of surface winds to 115 knots (132 MPH) in that time frame. With regard to global warming, I would like to see Gulf of Mexico total TCHP statistics archived so that as years pass we can see if total TCHP is increasing as global warming might predict. This would explain the increase in tropical cyclone intensity that has been the subject of recent academic articles (http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/nation/12655398.htm).

Likewise GOM rig operators can see if their rigs are sitting near persistent pools of high TCHP sea water - they should be eventually be raised up to withstand higher expected storm waves.

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Slippery Slope on September 21, 2005 - 1:51pm

Wednesday 2 PM, Rita upgraded to a strong category 4 - just as it passes over an area of high TCHP. Rita presents very rapid intensification, further confirming TCHP theory.