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The market is going to settle for whatever the Saudis decide to give it. The market has no power to enforce transparency. You've got the power relationship backwards. The junky doesn't tell the dealer what to do; the dealer tells the junky what to do.
I do believe there are those in power who would kill to find out exactly what the real scoop in Saudi Arabia is. The implications of a positive or negative answer are subtantial, affecting all of humanity.
At some point they will have to come clean in a transparent way or, I fear, they will do so at the point of someone's gun.
Lack of transparency will be what kills us.
Needing transparency and getting it are two different kettles of biodiesel, though.
This is the unspoken subtext, isn't it. "Transparency" is a veiled threat. "We" have a right to know how much oil is there because it's our oil.
This is why the Saudi's are right to resist calls for transparency. Inspectors are the vanguard troops of invasion and appropriation, just like they were in Iraq.
As far as I'm concerned, Saudi oil belongs to the Saudis, and "our" dependence on it is our problem, not theirs. Personally, if I were them, I would have a contigency plan for destroying the infrastructure and poisoning the fields, just in case.
I said here--or somewhere--long ago that I think peak oil needs geological/economic models to demonstrate, for example, how difficult it will be to use tar sands and shale oil to meet our energy needs. And a better understanding of future production is also useful. But many at peakoil.com, have argued that we have the right to pull those numbers out of Saudi Arabia.
Sorry folks. These are more arguments from whining little children who have eaten their cookies and now are demanding that the other kids declare how many cookies they have.
Transparency is not going to help us. The world will slam into the limits and will have to adapt. Hirsch gaps and whiners-for-transparency be damned.
and all the whiners about "those who endanger our children", should wake up and realize WE are endangering our children, and have been for decades (if not longer), with endless consumption of globally created corporate "goods" along with our addiction to cheap oil. not to mention the adoption of unsustainable economic systems, such as debt financing/banking and fiat currency. we (govt., multinational corporations, the unquestioning public) all share the blame in this, and to finger the "untransparent" ones is merely scapegoating.
Peak Oil seems to be a convienent excuse for imperialistic tendencies...subtle or not.