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25 comments on A listing of damaged rigs...

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DonRobbie on September 28, 2005 - 12:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2005/09/rig-devastation-is-quite-significant.html

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The best energy industry research firm I know is Petrie Parkman, run by oil research veteran Tom Petrie--a man I interviewed with 25 years ago when I was first looking for work on Wall Street, although he wouldn't remember me from the Sith Lord.

And from their morning research notes comes the following comment regarding Rowan Companies, a large operator of jack-up drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico:

Rowan has its own planes and were thus one of the first on the scene to witness the impact. They say that the rig devastation is quite significant and the pilots reported that in an area where they previously would see about 15 jack-ups there were none visible."

It'll be nice in a week or so when we can get hard numbers for the total impact.

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louGrinzo on September 28, 2005 - 1:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"It'll be nice in a week or so when we can get hard numbers for the total impact."  I couldn't agree more.

Speaking of hard data, the latest DOE/EIA numbers (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/curren t/txt/wpsr.txt) show a drop in crude oil stocks of 2.4MB over the prior week, and an increase of 4.4MB in gasoline stocks.

Gasoline stocks increased 4.4% in a week?  

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mw on September 28, 2005 - 2:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Demand is dropping; 1/2 of Lousiana isn't driving; and imports are arriving, is all I can think of.

None of these factors are long term... demand will bottom out - can't actually reverse without the ultimate peak oil aid, a recession or depression, occuring.

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mw on September 28, 2005 - 5:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
From today's DOE Office of Energy of Reliability situation report (one has to wonder what would happen if another storme cruised through the area... one possible storm track - NOAA Tropical Weather Outlook reports its getting better organized. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ )

Rigs/Platforms:
There are reports that as many as 18 GOM rigs and 40 platforms may be missing, damaged and/or detached from their moorings. We will attempt to gain further clarity in the next situation report.

Refineries:
100% (1.7m bbl/day) out in Port Arthur/Lake Charles Almost 1M (50% approx) out in Houston area.

Entergy reports that all transmission lines to the major industrial loads (7 refineries) in the Lake Charles - Port Arthur area have extensive damage. Restoration of electricity to these refineries is a priority for the company. [but no estimates]

Gas:
read the report - significant outages persist.

Total shut down including Katrina related: 3.575m bbl/day.

PDF: http://www.electricity.doe.gov/documents/gulfcoast_report_092805.pdf

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qmed2005 on September 28, 2005 - 5:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
crude-wise, the track I would worry about, if it comes to pass, is the one that goes right over Cantarell.
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mw on September 28, 2005 - 7:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Last storm that passed over Mexico appeared to do little damage - I guess the big land mass it has to cross does the region a favour. Either way, distruption of production = disruption of exports at best.
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mw on September 29, 2005 - 6:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Today's MMS report - virutally no change, still almost 100%/80% shut in on oil/ng.

From the latest Office of Energy Reliability report:

  • According to MMS s review of the evacuations, 35 platforms are destroyed while 16 platforms have extensive damage. Thirteen rigs went adrift, of which six are now grounded, and nine others have reported problems. The remainder are being re-manned, re-powered, or repaired. Approximately 2,900 platforms were in the path of Katrina and Rita. Eighteen deepwater facilities report no significant damage.
  • According to BP, the company expects gas production will begin at NaKika and Marlin platforms within the next few days. Three BP single-well caissons on the shelf were reported to be leaning. However, these wells were temporarily abandoned prior to the approach of the hurricanes, and hence have no production impact.

Last statement sounds odd.

  • ANR gas pipeline: 20 percent of capacity with reduced supply. Still on Force Majeure; approximately 1.3 Bcf shut-in.
  • Sabine: Force Majeure continues in effect at all points on the Sabine system. Power remains out in most areas of the system. Efforts are underway to remove standing water from Sabine's Henry facilities.

There is quite a bit more detail on the NG situation in today's report.

http://electricity.doe.gov/documents/gulfcoast_report_092905.pdf

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mw on September 28, 2005 - 2:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Latest MMS report

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0928.htm

100/80% up from yesterday...

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Ben on September 28, 2005 - 3:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I know the MMS guys had to close an office for the evacuation, but can this number be right?  Nobody in the gulf is pumping right now?  After nearly a week?

Their web site is down as I'm typing this, don't know if they have any more information posted about why so slow to recover.  We saw improvement 3 days after Katrina / Ivan.

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mw on September 28, 2005 - 4:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The stats are not a reporting issue; all companies operating in the gulf have to report their status. Why is it still shut down? Off-shore, on-shore pipelines and facilities would seem to be the major issue.

Financial markets - the big picture folks not focussed on energy - so far have not clued in that there may be a much more serious outage than 'normal' facing us.

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Ben on September 28, 2005 - 4:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Maybe they're waiting for the President to tell us all if this was a "normal" hurricane.

I understand they need to report stats, and somebody compiles them, I was wondering (aloud) if the data was accurate given that they have so many things going on.  I think you are right, that there are pipeline problems (or similar) that either need to be checked or repaired before they can start production.  They don't seem to be in a very big hurry to get their $67 / barrel...

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NC on September 28, 2005 - 5:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Am I mistaken or did the natural gas shut in go up since yesterday.  That is, more gas off line Wednesday than Tuesday.

If true this would support pipeline, distribution problems.  Even the non damaged wells can't move their production.

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patents on September 28, 2005 - 5:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Recall that after Katrina there was a time when the shut in rate improved and then reversed.  MMS explained that they then received a report that production was down.  Apparently, if MMS does not get a report, then they ASSUME that there is no problem with production and it does not appear as a shut-in.
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mw on September 29, 2005 - 7:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is interesting:

Hurricanes Turn Rigs Into Wrecking Balls

Bill Provine, with Houston-based Rowan Companies, a major drilling contractor in the Gulf, said that the company lost four of eight jackup rigs that were in Rita's path, and another rig in Katrina. Provine said the company had not lost a rig in the Gulf for over 30 years, until the year before last. Since then, Rowan has lost five jackups, he said.

"One of them was found on the bank in Louisiana. The other rigs, they are gone. They are either floating around in the Gulf or sank. We probably won't know until tomorrow," Provine said Monday. "These were good big rigs, capable of drilling to 30,000 feet ... They weigh about 30 million pounds each. That's a lot of steel, some of them are as big as a football field."

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=25680&rss=true

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