121 comments on Looking Back at Peak Global Production of...Gold
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
121 comments on Looking Back at Peak Global Production of...Gold
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Google search
Advanced search
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
- Politics and Peak Energy
- How do we maintain adequate phosphorus and potassium levels for crops?
- What should we do with funds set aside for retirement?
TOD:Europe
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- Electric cars an 'attractive proposition' for Australia
- Electric Vehicles: The End Of Australian Manufacturing ?
- Upcoming Forum In Sydney: 'Peak Oil - Is this the end of civilisation as we know it ?'
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan.”
—Eleanor Roosevelt
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Dave Murphy, Engineer-Poet, Glenn, Heading Out, Jason Bradford, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Nate Hagens, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:ANZ: aeldric, Big Gav, Phil Hart
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
Nothing to worry about, gold is almost as useless as diamonds.
Diamond mines is one of the worst wastes of resources there is.
Most essential use of diamonds that I have heard about can be
met with synthetisised materials including synthetic diamonds.
And most of the gold need can be met with other materials, there
has even been one developed at my local university i Linköping
that is better then gold for protecting electrical contact surfaces.
Gold is perceived as a tangible method of storing wealth and has survived as such for over three thousand years. Somehow I don't think you're going to be able to change that. But you might see folk moving to purchase more of it as a physical item with more long-term sustainable value than the paper money that they buy it with.
Its a lot better for society if we store wealth as durable capital goods or infrastructure investments. Or even to use ut all on educaton and gathering knowledge.
I would rather have metal cutting bits as the base for coinage then useless gold.
Metal cutting bits would work just fine -if there was some way of being sure nobody would ever be able to - in effect - counterfiet them by developing a way to lower thier production costs.
Apparently ( I may be wrong ) the supply of gold has never increased fast enough to significantly lower it's price over the middle or long term.
But I agree with the concept of storing wealth in the form of concrete, physically durable, useful forms.
But if you are going to take this approach you must be reasonably sure your chosen medium will not be substituted or replaced by a better material or product.
In the short term I am storing some wealth in the form of diesel fuel and fertilizer, which are not really well suited to long term storage but seem likely to appreciate fast over the next year or two.So I guess I'm one those petroluem speculators that are responsible for eighty dollar oil!
Items that seem likely to hold thier value well and store or last indefinitely as well as being useful in the meantime ( earning the equivalent of interest income )include any tools or machinery or household furnishings made to last indefinitely.
Some that we have are heavy stainless steel cookware, a cast iron hand pump, nylon rope, scythes with heavy duty blades, wood stoves made out of heavy steel plate at least one quarter inch thick,
a hand operated grinder for sharpening tools,etc.
Some items, such as the rope and grinder , do wear out in a few years if used comercially, but for homestead use they are essentially lifetime investments.
I also have stored a comsiderable amount of angle iron , pipe, channels , and I beams which are useless until put into service but which will doubtless appreciate sharply in value in coming years-steel is one of the most energy intensive of products.
If I had money to invest I might buy into a mining company with good prospects for the metals such as chromium , molybedium, etc. used in maling specialty steels.
"But I agree with the concept of storing wealth in the form of concrete, physically durable, useful forms. "
Gold fits that description perfectly. While other metals degrade and corrode, gold is DURABLE. It does not have to be useful for other purposes.
I am using 11 year old diesel fuel that i keep treated, and it runs fine. I've wondered about fertilizer as I have a farm, maybe i'll experiment with
a bag of urea, see how long it takes to dissipate.
The recommended ratio...
Could come in handy WTSHTF...
;-)
Super insulating your house, shop, barn etc.. (minimum of R-50 walls and roofs) is one of the best long term investments you can make. It will continue to pay increasing long term dividends (as long as energy prices continue to rise) for as long as you own and use the structure.
That followed by investing in a geothermal heat pump to heat/cool the structure. Do NOT look at payback, but at return on investment in the heat pump vs what you can get in other investments. [Stocks don't look "safe" to me and Cd's are paying under 1%]
the supply of gold has never increased fast enough to significantly lower it's price over the middle or long term.
However, with the influx of gold from his campaign in Gaul, Caesar may have inadvertently caused the [silver] price of gold to plunge by as much as 25%.
The influx of gold (and later silver) from the New World created such inflation that Spanish industry & crafts were severely reduced. Coins were traded for goods from abroad instead.
Likewise, gold in California after 1849 bought FAR fewer goods than it did in 1848.
Alan
Hi Alan,
I'm not a gold bug-pointed that out-but after that gold had time to shall we say "disperse " out of California and Spain , where it was concentrated, what happened next?
Of course by the time of the California gold rush there was a different kind of economy-industry was on a roll with trains, more efficient steel manufacture, etc.
I have never felt good about any money comparision from one time period to another as to how values compared because wages as well as prices change.
Spain took many decades, perhaps centuries, to recover from their gold version of the resource curse.
A little like what the US has done with it's reserve currency.
A good insight !
Our reserve currency has had the same effect as having "too many" resources to export.
Alan
Thanks.
Once thought of, it seems both fairly obvious and pretty important.
I wonder why this gets no attention? It seems closely linked to the US Strong Dollar policy, which has done so much harm to US manufacturing.
For over a century in the USA, good farm labor (except during harvest) went for about $1/day. In Reconstruction in the South it dropped to $0.25 to 0.60/day but stayed near $1 in the North. Also lower during Panics.
In good times it was $1 plus room & board (up to $1.50 if you roomed and boarded yourself) and in harder times it could be $0.60 plus room & board or $1 to $0.80 for labor alone.
But there was tradition behind the $1/day.
Such is my reading of economic history over time.
Alan
In his book: Beyond Oil, Kenneth S. Deffeyes thinks that once the global economy is shrinking severily, gold will be
almost worthless. Very few people will be interested in buying jewelry or any luxury items.
For a better future we have to manufacture very durable tools and products.
One of my grandmothers had a refrigerator [Brand = Frigidaire] that lasted more than 40 years, it worked fine!!
I have an electric shaver [Braun] made in Germany that has worked fine for more than 12 years.
Nowadays there are juice extractors and other appliances which are almost rubbish (made in China).
In a growing economy, it makes sense that gold and jewelry can hold or increase their value, whereas in a contracting
economy it doesn't make sense.
...once the global economy is shrinking severily, gold will be almost worthless. Very few people will be interested in buying jewelry or any luxury items.
Thing is, the fundamental demand for jewelry and other luxury items has little to do with the current price of gold (~$1100/oz). Gold is being universally hoarded as the perceived "hard money" safe haven from fiat currency debasement, while the world's central banks pump money (in the form of bank bailouts and ZIRP) like crazy.
It's all about preserving the purchasing power of one's "money", not about the bling.
Willem Buiter has a good article on gold in the Financial Times - Gold - A six thousand year old bubble.You can link to this through the current issue of The Automatic Earth.
"I would rather have metal cutting bits as the base for coinage then useless gold."
No, that is a bad idea. Metal can be used for other purposes and it is quite common. Also easy to counterfeit.
Gold has unique advantages:
- very hard to counterfeit
- it is pretty much USELESS for anything else than money
- it is rare
It is not a coincidence that gold has been (and still is) money for thousands of years.
In Zimbabwe people started to sell rings and jewlerey as things got bad. The dealers buying them and selling them on abroad could only give fixed prices for the weight of gold because they had no way of gauging its purity. In this case you were better off selling a poor quality gold ring than good.
Too bad they can't afford a balance and some water...
I belive they are offering a fixed amount, but that is more likely a way of taking advanje of people than a consequence of lack of means.
Economics Professor posts a blog at The Financial Times castigating gold ... then people post comment below his blog, crushing his argument. Priceless.
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/gold-a-six-thousand-year-old-bubble/
Very interesting THREAD after I wrote PEAK SILVER and PEAK MINING due to a falling EROI, Which can be found here:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14756.html
First, as HEADING OUT states, GOLD is real money as it has a STORE of VALUE. When Gold and silver were mined by physical labor in years past, it was this amount of physical labor and time investment that was stored in the value of the coin. If you wanted to trade a pair of boots you made for eggs as an example, the labor in making a boot compared to picking an egg would be much higher. The market in barter would figure this out to compare LABOR RATES between different goods and services. GOLD and SILVER were money that had STORED LABOR in them to use in this market.
FIAT MONEY never lasts and the last record for a fiat currency was 18 years. The US DOLLAR has broken that last record, and is now 38 years old. I would be surprised if it went to 40 years. The reason why it has lasted so long, was due to the US Military, Strong arm policies for those countries who would not trade oil in US dollars, Hook and Crook, and of course if all else failed, murder and execution.
To say GOLD is as worthless as Diamonds, comes from an ignorant commodity view of GOLD. Many present day analysts see gold as a mere commodity, similar to refering to the past trade of humans as slaves. When the energy crisis gets into full gear, electronic money, trade and etc will become increasingly difficult due to the breakdown in infrastructure. If people want to put faith in fiat money or electronic digits...do so at ones own peril.
The Peaking of GOLD in 2001, was a very important event. But, the Peaking of Silver will be even more critical, as it will signify the peaking of the Global Mining Industry in general. 72% of all silver production comes from by-product mining of base metals. I stated in the article that I believe the PEAK of SILVER will have occured in 2008. We will see if this pans out.
I don't know if this picture turned out. Don't know how to post pictures in this blog, but that graph of Australian production rates, is most certainly exponential. Silver has the most exponential graph of them all.
You can make bullets out of gold, and that is an advantage.
I would be collecting antibiotics and fish hooks over gold.
Glue and matches would also be on the list.
aren't silver bullets better?
;-)
Only for Wall Street Werewolves.
Would be?
I have already collected the items you mentioned and also a pretty good collection of hand tools.
Don't forget gold is an excellent conductor, which means it's essential for complex electronics like computers and photovoltaics.
Not "essential", merely helpful, other things will do.
regarding buying gold as protector of value, after the romans started retreat from Britain the wealthy sometimes left a pots with golden coins, convinced they would return soon, even now you can find one. i wonder how many of those gold bullion in deep vaults of present day banks will share the destiny.
there is 200 000 tons of gold in the world (already mined) and one tone contains 30 000 ounces so you get 6 billion, if we got to use gold for something useful other than a superstitious "wealth" preserver we wont have a problem for a long time.
and if we take in account a fact of end of cheap oil and energy are we not near the end of feasible extraction methods? in other words gold has run out?
You got that right.
You cannot eat gold - so what good is it in the long run.I really feel sorry for those individuals who are trying to calculate why the world economy is tanking right now without the knowledge or acceptance of PO.Currencies backed by precious metals are a thing of the past: approximately 37 years for the world at large and 76 years for the good ol' USA.
That sort of stability is a thing of the past; we are rapidly headed for a digital technocratic socialistic economy and there is nothing that can stop it.
Feeling free lately?
If not just turn on your boobtube and escape reality indefinitely - if you can't handle reality.
Better to face reality...