The Oil Drum

When we "stop using oil for most purposes" - and I suspect that's well north of $200 - I suspect it will be too expensive (energy intense) to build the "alternative technology" intended to replace it.  The problem with an inelastic energy source like petroleum is that the price can also fall rapidly when the economy tanks (no pun intended).  Unfortunately the economy is geared to short term gains.  This strongly works against investment in alternatives.  Witness the 70's.

We are looking at a nightmare of a train wreck and we want to believe it's not really happening - emotionally speaking - no matter what our thinking parts may tell us.  Therefore, as soon as the coming killer recession causes oil to temporarily drop below $35 a barrel, pundits will rush in and start crowing "I told you so,", the Greenspan proxy will cut interest rates, the economy will come out of a nose dive, the situation will improve (comparatively though not absolutely) and Americans will breathe a big sigh of relief.  Oil will inevitably start rising again and we will repeat the sequence, each time economically peaking at a lower level.

European humankind faced an energy crisis in the 16th century - it was deforestation that time.  I don't know what the "peak wood" curve looks like but I do know that people could view their diminishing forests and see the problem.  That's a really different situation than trying to see oil 12 thousand feet down.  A normal person could make an assessment.

And coal entered stage left.  Like oil, the first coal seams were easy to mine.  They didn't require much in the way of capital investment.

What I'm saying, in a long-winded way, is that what we face now is unique and cannot be compared to what seem to be similar historical moments.  Mostly because of inelasticity, and sheer size of the problem.  16th century Europe was not an integrated economy in today's sense.

At some point quite soon now I think the sensible thing to do is simple acknowledge that we're screwed double time.  Number nerdism, scientific thinking and long contemplative chin pulls aren't going to save the day.  What's coming is far too turbulent to predict further than to say most of us aren't going to like it one bit.  I strongly doubt that many  fortunes will be made in biofuel.  Some, no doubt, but not like the fortunes made in petroleum.

Rejoice in the day, insomuch as possible.  We have been privileged to live in a unique period of human history that probably won't be repeated.  We have lived like gods we an entourage of 50 or more mechanical slaves to do our wished with no complaints.

All things come to an end.  Look around in wonder.

No, I'm not religious.