Search The Oil Drum with Google
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Local
- Home Buyers Demand Short Commutes, Efficient Homes (with Backyards, Parking, lots of Square Feet)
- Streets: Utilitarian Corridors or Livable Public Space
- Summer Streets a Success!
TOD:Europe
- IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
- The IEA WEO 2008: Will coal usage be phased out?
- Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008
TOD:Canada
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
- Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008)
TOD:ANZ
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- Calculated Risk
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
“To be thrown upon one's own resources, is to be cast into the very lap of fortune; for our faculties then undergo a development and display an energy of which they were previously unsusceptible.”
—Benjamin Franklin
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Prof. Goose, Heading Out, Stuart Staniford, Nate Hagens
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Gail the Actuary, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Khebab, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Local: Glenn
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Say you are a doctor and think PO has little to do with the health care business. Well where do you think the raw materials come from to make all your inexpensive plastic syringes, tubings, etc. etc. And as we saw in New Orleans, when the power goes out at those hospitals, all the fancy high tech medical equipment becomes just so much dead weight. The elevators stop working. You can't transport nonambulatory patients from floor to floor. The whole hospital system comes crashing down. What emergency preparations are being made in the medical field for meeting the energy crisis? How is the emergency medi-vac helicopter going to fly emergency patients in and out without airplane fuel?
The biggest problem IMHO is our societal organizations. They are incapable of detecting let alone dealing with emerging problems like Peak Oil, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change (not the same as GW), inter-species virus transfer (H5N1 bird flu), etc.
We need to bring it to the attention of everyone in our society that some fundamental assumptions about our "advanced society" of the 21st Century are all wrong. We are a runaway train heading full steam towards the washed away bridge and we (the larger "we") still don't know it. They keep grazing happily in the fields as the herd marches relentlessly towards lemming's ledge.
I think a lot of people have gotten into the habit of "solving" problem by buying something new or complaining to someone who truly solves the problem for them. But maybe I'm just being elitist.
What you describe is an outcome of the Adam Smith proposal that we should all "specialize" in one esoteric craft or another. After a while, we come to expect that "the markets" will always provide an approproate solution on a just-in-time basis.
Did the blue screen of death just pop up on your computer? OK. No problem. Pick up the phone and call the office computer geek. He'll fix it. Always has.
Not feeling well? Go to your doctor. He'll give you just the right pill. You'll be good as new in a day or so. It will work next time for sure. Always has.
Your gas station is out of gas? Forever? No problem. Pick up the Yellow Pages. Look up Energy Specialists. They will deliver a just-in-time soultion. The science geeks always have, always will. The markets have always provided. They are sure to do so with each next crisis. It is the power and the miracle of the Invisible Hand. It always delivers. I have deep faith-based confidence in it. Don't you?
No need for us to alarm the sheeple. Everything will be fine. Doom and gloomers have come and gone. The Earth is still here. See?
We COULD correct PO, if we took the right steps. But, ultimately, the people who hold the pursestrings have to know that there's a problem that needs a solution NOW. Ultimately, this is where the process has failed.
What a capitalist system will do is push the price up high enough that we never run out, making sure that there's always some oil production available for the boutique plastics industry and other specialty niches.
Already, and more so as prices go higher, there's money in finding substitutes, which will work great for the non-energy uses for oil. But when it comes to oil's role as a source of cheap energy, I don't think capitalism is going to help. Capitalism will work fine for finding other sources of expensive energy which will be somewhat cheaper than the really expensive oil of the future, but hardly what I call "fixing" the problem.
You have a lot more faith in capitalism than I do. The fact is that there is a lack of social consciousness in capitalism. The disparity between the have's and havenot's is just one example of what's wrong with capitalism.
The problem is that all of the solutions I know of require asking people to make great sacrifices. My contention is that people will fight change at all costs. How many times have we heard that honesty with the American public would be political suicide? Jimmy Carter was honest and look where that got him. So the politicians who are aware of the situation aren't going to make the same mistake. There are just too many other immediate problems to deal with. So they will continue to pass the buck until the buck can't be passed. We may be seeing some initial signs of that now.
Anyhow, my basic point is that "correcting PO" equates to causing social upheaval. If the situation gets bad enough, change will be forced on us. It may not be a very pretty scenario. Sometimes the universe has to give us a little spanking to set us on the right course. Historically speaking progress comes in cycles not unlike economic cycles. Even if things were to get pretty nasty, we will end up being stronger, smarter, and better prepared for future challenges.
Specialization is inevitable to some extent. Nobody can be all things to all people. Though I think it's good to be well rounded and have extensive knowledge in a few areas.
I, too, think we're on a dangerous path. I don't blindly believe in capitalist dogma. Unfortunately we've dug ourselves into this hole and we'll have to figure out how to get out on our own.
The Pilgrims and progenitors of modern America had to work their asses off to build this country. People still work hard every day, but I would argue that most really aren't doing anything valuable. I don't think service sector jobs are going to launch us into the next era. There is a certain laziness to America now, a sense of entitlement, a sense that everything should come easy just because we exist.
What we should've been doing for the past 50 years is making sure that everybody had a GOOD education. For all of our wealth we should have an absolutely fantastic educational system. Kids should be expected to achieve academic excellence. I have to laugh when I hear about "no child left behind". Many of our crime, welfare, health, and other problems are related to poor education. Education is the single best investment you can make in a child's future.
I'm reminded of that saying about people perishing for a lack of knowledge. If Peak Oil turns out to be a nasty period in the annals of human history, then it will have a lot to do with the feudalization of America. There is no nice way to put it, but that's what happens when 90% of the wealth exists in an increasingly small percentage of families.
Not to mention the slaves and immigrants. =/
In almost every commercial transaction, one party has at least a slight advantage over the other. The one party with the trade advantage learns how to repeat that behavior. Over time, they win again and again, shifting more and more capital gain into their corner. They justify it by claiming they are superior human beings. God wanted them to be wealthy. They deserve it. In the end, you have an L-shaped distribution curve. The winners are happy with the system as is. The losers have almost no power to change it.
The problem is dumb consumers and thick people who dont think when they trade.
What objective evidence do you have to back up this pure assumption?
On the other hand, if you need proof that people are irrationally exuberant and unintelligent, then the evidence for this is bountiful. Let's start with the 2001 stock market. Even now you see people buying up SUV's and homes in outer suburbia. There is no win-win situation here. Too many unwitting people are getting suckered in to a lose and lose-big situation.
Yes, I know your economics teacher pounded the dogma into your head about the hypothetical two intelligent persons hammering out a fair deal in a "free market". But the whole fairy tale is just that. How much "free" information do you think McDonalds gives out to the hoards who line up behind its counters thinking they are buying hamburger "meat" when in fact they are being sold redigested soylent green? Madison Avenue is all about brainwashing not about intelligent transactions with win-win outcomes. Get real.
COPY:
It is a falsity to assert that people are "rational" and/or "intelligent" when they conduct a transaction.
What objective evidence do you have to back up this pure assumption?
On the other hand, if you need proof that people are irrationally exuberant and unintelligent, then the evidence for this is bountiful. Let's start with the 2001 stock market. Even now you see people buying up SUV's and homes in outer suburbia. There is no win-win situation here. Too many unwitting people are getting suckered in to a lose and lose-big situation.
Yes, I know your economics teacher pounded the dogma into your head about the hypothetical two intelligent persons hammering out a fair deal in a "free market". But the whole fairy tale is just that. How much "free" information do you think McDonalds gives out to the hoards who line up behind its counters thinking they are buying hamburger "meat" when in fact they are being sold redigested soylent green? Madison Avenue is all about brainwashing not about intelligent transactions with win-win outcomes. Get real.
We would be very poor if they did not exist, we are not poor.
We might become poor if too few think before they act or if they have to shortsighted goals.
I have both read this in textbooks and observed it in ordinary day to day life. It is obviously important in every scale of economical activity.
Regarding hamburgers there is written material about the nutritient value of the hamburgers in the McD i bicycle past daily. The factory for making most of the meat patties(?) for Sweden is situated in my town. I have not visited it, only the butchery next door too it. And I know how most of the farms selling the beef used are being run. Most of them are like my fathers farm were but the trend is to bigger more automated units with better facilities but less human oversight. This is also fairly well documented for people who care to look. But still, I choose to most often buy less well documented hamburgers in small hamburger bars since they often are spiced better. Rational or irrational of me? I do at least get my meal and reward those who spice well.
The way I tend to look at things, most of our problems are social rather than technological. We have plenty of technical ability worldwide, but our social, political, and religious systems border on the archaic.
Man's biggest enemy is often man himself. Greed, lust, prejudice, ignorance, and similar things are responsible for a lot of what ills us. I'm far more worried about mankind killing himself off than I am about foreseeable natural threats killing us off.
There may be natural threats which we won't be able to fight off because of the herd mentality. Peak oil is just one of the more pressing problems on the horizon. There have always been these things which force us to adapt in one way or another. Perhaps Peak Oil is an example of evolution and survival of the fittest in action.
I think we're up to the challenge. All we can really be sure about is that there will be many challeges and surprises in store for us. I don't believe science is the only path to enlightenment or suvival, but science and technology will be part of the solution.
Engineers, for the most part, are manipulation-blind. They do not understand that the Enron gang (the "smartest" guys in the room) are playing them with manipulative tactics. Dilbert may be smart in the sciences, but when it comes to social manipulation techniques, he is a retard. That is why Catbird earns $200K/year doing HR bullshit work and Dilbert earns $20K/year doing "real" engineering work (OK, a bit of an exageration to drive home the point).
The biggest "manipulators" in the USA are the elite in the Bush Administration. Think about it. They have manipulated 300 million "patriotic" into believing Sadaam Huessien blew up WC7 on Sept. 11, 2001. Well OK, this is an exageration also. Actually they merely needed to fool 51% of the people and only on one day, as tallied by the Diebold machines.
None of this manipulation is a big problem.
The BIG problem is that the manipulative few (the power elite) are Morons in Science. They did not graduate Harvard and Yale because they were smart. They graduated cause their "Daddies" were powerful, were part of the manipulative few.
The manipulative few (Cheney & company) know that Peak Oil is upon us. (Congressman Bartlett had a secret talk with GW about it for heaven's sake.) Their Harvard and Yale degrees don't help them to figure out what to do next. Instead, they get togetehr into a prayer circle, hold hands with one another and with the Saudi's, and make "wish upon a star" noises in hopes that the problem will just "go away". The "free markets" will provide a solution. They are sure about it. And if not, there is always that deep bunker in Cheyenne Mountain to hide in while the masses do a "Dawn of the Dead" routine on each other. Then, when it's over, the elite will emerge back into the sunlight to reap the rewards of those dumb masses that made the "ultimate sacrifices" so that the "noble cause" can continue to live in the life style they were born to enjoy. The end.
See. Fairy tales always end happily. (For those who were born to be prince charmings and sleeping beauties, and and let's not foget brown nose Brownies.)
Actually, I'm slogging my way through one of the Enron books, Conspiracy of Fools. It is a long chronology about how a bunch of highly manipulative people (i.e., Enron President Skilling, Enron CFO Fasting) use greed and other emotional puppet strings to urge everyone around them into committing white collar crimes, into breaking all the accounting rules, and into acting like a bunch of drunken fools. They indeed were the "smartest guys in the room" in that sense.
What one has to wonder is how many other places in our society is the same thing happening? I recently left a company that was a mini-Enron. The controller kept multiple books and was constantly cooking them. The head man was a smooth talking BS'er just like Kenny Boy of Enron. I'm wondering how pervasive this is. How many other mini and macro Enrons are there are in our society? Are the oil companies cooking the books on how much oil is recoverable? Is the stock market pulling another irrational exuberance round? Is Peak Oil a ruse? I see one thing as being fairly clear: the insurgents of Iraq are not in their "last throes". Halliburton does not participate in "free markets" with open competition. Competition is for the "little people", to drive those honest but dumb, common folk into that downward graveyard spiral. And they are the ones who fly the flag "patriotically". They are the ones who fall for all the manipulative language: economics; free markets; love life; last throes.
When is someone in government (other than silenced Hirsch) going to come out and let the little people know we are in the "last throes of our cheap energy party"?
"Come up, come out, and die"