The Oil Drum

Hi Stuart, i've re-plotted our CERA 2005 Outlook using its parent IHS High Estimate URR so that it and others reflect published reports rather than the inconsistencies with their Remaining Oil stats.  New graph at http://TrendLines.ca/economic.htm with these comments wrt Scenarios update:
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This week we première the IHS projection scenario.  Its model includes both a High & Low Estimate for URR.  We have decided to use the former as that better facilitates its Extraction plateau.  Only EIA has a larger URR.  Its relatively low Production Peak allows a generous Extraction Plateau thru the Century and the longest "Exhaustion Exit" of our Scenarios.

As follow-up to last week's musings, we have commenced applying arbitrary URR's to some of the models.  Five of the scenarios presented do not provide a large enuf URR to justify their ambitious Extraction forecasts.  However, we are satisfied presently that this is a reflection of cautiousness or lack of similar definitions in the realm of URR more so than lack of study of fields coming on stream in the medium and long term.  While we like the methodology of EIA's use of a combination of OGJ/USGS stats, its subsequent URR figure is the largest of the series.  Thus we have chosen to use the AVG of the series and have applied it towards BP, IEA, OPEC & Total.  As IHS has become the parent of CERA and Daniel Yergin makes announcements for them interchangeably, we have decided to use the IHS High Estimate URR figures for CERA.

This methodology allows TrendLines to illustrate each model as described in their Annual Outlooks and/or recent media updates.  That some of them cannot live up to those claims will be accommodated and disclosed in a coming Footnotes caveat.

Only ASPO, Laherrère & Koppelaar address post-Peak production.  We have applied the AVG of those series as a Depletion Rate on the other scenarios to exhaust their published or our attributed URR.

The Exhaustion Exit is demarked by each model's failure to produce 6-mbd (was 5-mbd).

And finally, a public "thanx" to Jean Laherrère for providing us with his API sourced data for the 1950-1999 Past Production component of the graph.
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Down the same page we've posted our September USA Energy Reserves Newsletter. It's been almost a year since we posted this one publicly and some readers of TheOilDrum may find some of the stats & graphs interesting...