The Oil Drum

It would seem to me that there are far more factors than just peak oil at play here in answering such a question. Right now it appears obvious that we are headed towards recession and we're clearly seeing "demand destruction" occurring. If this continues and we do see some increase in available supplies, then we might limp along in a recessionary state for years. Or we might bounce through shorter growth/recession cycles with lots of spikey economic behavior. This happened under different circumstances in the 19th century in some places. What we don't know is how bad the recession will be as well as how much demand is reduced and the demand reduction is the key other factor in trying to model how long existing oil is going to "hold out" before things begin sliding downward.