The Oil Drum

13 comments on Update on the 2007 CERA projects

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Murray on October 18, 2005 - 2:24pm

Using the spreadsheet, and assuming the "most likely" case is Low+0.4(high-low), and taking a decline from existing fields of 2 Mb/d/yr and adding another 1.5 Mb/d from refinery gain plus NGL plus tarsands, and adding contribution from 2004 projects, 2010 total production would be up 2.1 Mb/d in the best case, down 1.3 Mb/d in the likely case and down 3.5 Mb/d in the worst case. Even going back and adding increases for 2006/7/8 from projects that started producing in 2002/3/ we are down every year from 2006 in the likely and worst cases. It seems like these projects are not enough to offset declines. Murray

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Murray on October 18, 2005 - 3:04pm

I tried to redo the above a little more carefully, and to average with an independant analysis I did previously. The result is practically flat from 2007 through 2012. Any year in that group could be the peak, but would be little dufferent from the others. Murray