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36 comments on Waiting for the lights to go out...

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Stoneleigh on October 16, 2005 - 9:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For a comprehensive analysis of diminishing returns to complexity I would recommend a fascinating archaelogical study called The Collapse of Complex Civilizations by Joseph A Tainter (Cambridge University Press, 1988). The entire work is very much worth reading in my opinion, but I would especially recommend the final section (pgs 209-216) on the contemporary situation.
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step back on October 17, 2005 - 8:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Imagine a Giant Dung Ball rolling down a shallow hill ... towards a cliff.

Inside the Giant Dung Ball, all sorts of dung beetles (scarabs) are busy with their specialized niches.

The acountant beetles are busy counting dung beans.
... all is well in their specialized universe.

The financial markets beetles are busy projecting "expectations" for the next quarter.
... all is well in their specialized universe.

The politician beetles are busy collecting votes for the next election.
... all is well in their specialized universe.

The next-specialty beetles are busy doing their dung-centric speciality with eyes focused only on their niche. All is well in that niche too.

No "specialist" is responsible for steering the Giant Dung Ball as it "progresses" down that shallow hill ... towards the cliff!!!

Of course you understand the metaphor.
Planet Earth is the Giant Dung Ball.
"We" are the dung-brained beetles who are busy weaving our niche-centerd doom inside the Ball.

All is well inside each of our "specialized" niches.

Adam Smith was such a genius.

(An Image of "Atlas" as the only entity responsible for our teetering globe:
http://www.nso.lt/bible/atlas.jpg )

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wkwillis on October 17, 2005 - 1:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In classical Adam Smith economics, the dung beetles would have a specialist class of dung beetles to invest in new technologies found by the specialist class of dung beetles that invent new technologies to find new balls of dung.
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step back on October 18, 2005 - 1:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Truth is better than fiction.

We have a specialist class of denial beetles:

http://www.insultsunpunished.com/2005/10/18/peak-oil/

Their job is to weave bales of dung into threads of golden words that will allay the fears of the other beetles.

Good job boys.

Keep up the efficient conversion of BS into more BS.

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Stuart Staniford on October 18, 2005 - 3:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The supply of clueless cornucopians is the one thing that some days does seem to be effectively infinite. Don't they feel any need to research the issue at least a little bit before taking a position?
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step back on October 18, 2005 - 10:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
True Believers of the Adam Smith religion
NEVER question the DOGMA

The "markets" will provide.

Always have.
Why worry about science and such?
There is an infinite supply of techno-nerds (cheap Dilbert kinds) and solutions.

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